Putrid Portugal and Elite England Highlight End of First Round

The Show Goes On

But first overall broad changes in how I grade teams according to my brutally crude and rough Secret Sauce.

Big Changes In How I View Teams?

Risers From Round 1: USA (18→12), Netherlands (14→11), South Korea (30→25), Uruguay (32→27), DR Congo (27→23), Egypt (36→32)

Fallers: Belgium (9→16), Portugal (5→8), Japan (10→13), South Africa (34→37), Czechia (31→34), Ecuador (26→30), Uzbekistan (29→33)

The Big Three of Spain, England and France all delivered strong outings and remain the Big 3 for a reason (though Spain is my overall favorite). Germany seems to be the fourth team and then a mess of teams: Argentina, Morocco, Brazil, Colombia, Netherlands, Portugal and the US of Fuckin’ A (and Mexico) can all be in this tier. I think Belgium and Japan have fallen out of it.

Superlatives

Most xG: Germany 3.72 vs Curacao, Switzerland 2.78 vs Qatar

Least xG: South Africa .07 vs Mexico, Tunisia .2 vs Sweden

Most Box Touches: Germany 63 vs Curacao, USA 53 vs Paraguay

Least Box Touches: South Africa 2 vs Mexico, Cape Verde 6 vs Spain

Most Futi-Labeled Fast Breaks + Counter Attacks: Ivory Coast 9 vs Ecuador, England/Panama/Spain/Sweden with 6

Fewest: Belgium and South Africa with 0

Highest Pass%: Spain 92% vs Cape Verde, Switzerland 91% vs Qatar

Lowest Pass%: Bosnia and Herzegovina 64% vs Canada, Qatar 71% vs Switzerland

Other Data Sources

I continue to recommend Futi, a high potential app with some bugs and black box stuff for now, and will add a new one. Most of the images here are from there.

Some interesting stuff can be found at the FIFA Match Report Hub. I do wish it was formatted a bit better so we could compare runs in behind, offers to receive and pressures more easily across all matches, but there is data there you just won’t find elsewhere.

Onto today’s games.

DR Congo 1, Portugal 1

The score on the image below represents my Secret Sauce score for the performance: a very crude rating based on xG, shots, box touches, transition and set pieces adjusted for opponents.

What was that? What the hell was that? In Portugal’s last 9 matches they have averaged over 19 shots and 33 box touches. They had 2 shots through an hour vs DR Congo and ended with 7 and 0.64 xG. A ton of possession but minimal transition and fast breaks (graded with 2 by Futi) and a lineup that was hard to figure out who was going to take the shots or run behind…Neto/Bernardo/Ronaldo? It was a disastrous performance by Portugal and very solid by DR Congo, a team I respected coming in (27th ranked). A very deserved draw created by just totally shutting down the middle of the pitch. All Portugal did was go wide with wide players unable to break into the box. Bernardo Silva didn’t have a box touch, shot or key pass starting at RW. Neto had 3 box touches, 0 shots and 1 key pass. Nothing through the center.

Players of note

Aaron Wan-Bissaka (DRC, West Ham) was 17/19 passing with 5 recoveries, 2 tackles, an interception and 7 clearances.

England 4, Croatia 2

A routine and great start for one of the big 3 in this field in England. A few wobbles early after bizarrely dropping off in intensity after going ahead but in the end very comfortable over maybe the most average team in the field in Croatia. I have no idea why this remains a thing in soccer, where with 30, 40, 50, or 60 minutes left and 1 goal lead the better team can suddenly start playing terrified and defensively. It drives me crazy. This is one of the most dominant teams in the field, falling back to a back 7 and sitting way off Croatia in the first half. even for just 5-6 minutes, is malpractice.

Over 1 xG from set plays shows they are pushing their edges well and hopefully the 2 goals from passivity will wake them up to keep pushing. The fact that little bobble caused little problem is a big positive though: Bellingham looked amazing and the Anderson/Rice combo behind him makes this the best all-around midfield in the tournament most likely, especially after what we saw from Portugal today.

Players of note

AM Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid) had the killer goal and 3 total shots for .48 xG, 6 box touches, 4 tck + int, and 5 recoveries. While he was uninvolved in passing progression those box score numbers were difference makers.

CM Elliot Anderson (Nottingham Forest) had 4 interceptions, 8 recoveries, 2 tackles, drew 2 fouls and was a passing hub.

FW Harry Kane (Bayern) had 6 shots + a pen, 2 chances created, blocked a shot with his balls. I still think his drop into midfield and spray balls to the wing gimmick is probably a net negative but the overall production from today was top.

Ghana 1, Panama 0

This was a dreadful game and crushed one of my Best Bets for the World Cup: Ghana to finish last in the group. That’s why the bookies make millions and I use the Taco Bell app to save on Five-Layer Burritos. Anyway, Ghana were truly atrocious as expected, but Panama are also bad and an ugly match was decided by a late breakdown by Panama and a stoppage time goal. Ghana had just 1 official Futi-labeled Fast Break vs 6 for Panama but that one was enough to get the goal late.

Players of note

RB Amir Murillo (Panama, Besiktas) won 6 tackles, blocked a shot and had 7 recoveries while drawing 4 fouls and creating 3 chances in all action display.

CB Jiovany Ramos (Panama, Academia Puerto Caballo) also won 6 tackles, had 2 interceptions and was 81/90 passing.

Colombia 3, Uzbekistan 1

Uzbekistan almost played like a nation totally detached from soccer norms, wildly aggressive off the ball and physical and really physically under-developed. Only Iraq looked so far off the mark in terms of size/speed. Though looking at the tables, the Uzbeks were only 10th in total fouls with 14…Haiti and Scotland were #1 and #2 with 23 and 21!

Colombia were comfortable most of the night without sparkling in attack: 15 shots and 27 box touches in what was essentially a home match at an incredibly loud Azteca were ~fine, not amazing. They have moved up from 12 to 10 in my rankings, mainly due to struggles above them.

While Daniel Munoz scored from RWB, a lot of the progression went through Luis Diaz down the left.

Uzbekistan were very much stuck in their own half most of the time, just 56% of their passes in the Colombian half were completed while Colombia were at 76% in the Uzbek half.

Players of note

Luis Diaz (Colombia, Bayern) scored, created 2 chances for .93 xG + xA total with 6 box touches and 5 fouls drawn.

I love Daniel Munoz (Crystal Palace) because of how he can get really far forward (scored the goal tonight) and get back and defeend: 5 tck + int, 3 clearances and 4 recoveries. One of the great PL signings of recent years.

More Saturdays Artisan Stats

These are the ones more finely crafted, lovingly vlookuped and conditionally formatted that take a bit more time and processing. Yes I know the others look better, are easier to access, quicker to access, and better in many ways….but these are called Artisan. Glossary here

Check out Olise’s numbers, mainly his absurd efficiency stats…outrageous for an aggressive, attacking player with elite buildup numbers to be so high in efficiency.

Diomande nearly 2x the second player in buildup and Fields Gained is absurd. Elye Wahi just got busted for match fixing, so a new striker likely needed.

Transitional dominance helped Ivory Coast win the performance battle.

The leaky defense of Norway can be seen here, lots of deep touches and deep touch success allowed for very few Fields Gained. A quiet night from Odegaard, do Norway have the ball progression engine to do really well here?

Up next: Round 2. The show goes on. You have to love it.

Let me know what you think and any requests, comments or criticisms. I appreciate the comments, likes and shares very much. I hope this can enhance your World Cup experience in the way it enhances mine.