Arsenal vs Porto Preview
The Ratios
Porto played a very easy schedule in the group stage, Shakhtar and Antwerp were two of the worst teams in the Champions League and a bit of a shaky Arsenal. Arsenal played a somehow roughly average schedule, even if it felt awful as they played it (Lens, Sevilla and PSV). They topped Porto mostly comfortably in every category.
Maps
Colors are based on how often a team progresses efficiently and creates in the seconds following the ball being in that zone.
The left side of the Porto defense was the sore thumb that stuck out like a target to be attacked, the right side of the Arsenal attack has dominated all year long in the Champions League and Premier League. This is not a good matchup for Porto, you could see some trouble for Arsenal to move down the left where Porto were very tough and Arsenal have been much weaker all year.
Arsenal against the ball are arguably the best team in the world right now. It’s only them and Man City in contention at all.
The Stats
Arsenal’s attack was sputtering in the Champions League but is not at all right now. I would expect them to overperform these numbers here, a middling 1.7 per 90 xG against a poor schedule has transformed into 2.8 per game over their past 5 matches in the PL. We know they will play controlled, short passes through the center and never cross the ball. A big telling factor is whether they can get transition opportunities or not.
Opponents just don’t get anything at all: forced into hit and hope crosses from poor defensive efficiency. Arsenal press high very well but then ease off a bit in midfield, allowing their backline to stay set and limit transitions.
Arsenal held the ball in the center of the pitch a ton and Porto allowed opponents to have the ball in that zone a lot, expect Rice, Jorginho, Odegaard, Zinchenko and co to touch it a ton.
Porto relied a lot on generating chances in transition during the Group Stage while Arsenal were very stingy allowing transition chances. That’s probably their only hope here, particularly Galeno down the right side was fantastic in transitions.
Porto are very vertical with their passing, looking to rush the ball forward into the danger zone (highest share of passes in the danger zone), they wound up with an average progression efficiency. I don’t actually hate this type of attack against Arsenal, a Lazio style slow attack with a big talent and structure gaps would not have as good a chance.
The Passes
All passes here are “pass types” a simple clustering algorithm to make it easier to see patters. The clustering is based simply on pass start and end.
Porto want to keep opponents from setting up in their half and were hard to progress well against overall, pushing opponents pretty high up the pitch.
Arsenal, as in the league, are very right sided dominant with lots of controlling style passes.
Porto do not want to set “setting up play” in the middle of the pitch, they want their attackers getting the ball and being direct with it and getting into the box. They were great at getting in and cutting back against Shakhtar and Antwerp but against Arsenal it will be a bit different.
The left side of Arsenal’s defense saw a lot of the ball against them.
The Players
All numbers here are percentiles against players who played in similar areas.
Saka completed 86% of his passes in the Group Stage vs an expected completion rate of 78.6%, a huge +7.4%. No other attacking player with his volume is really close to that level of overperformance on expected completion%.
Saka
The center is where Porto funnel opponents and where Arsenal love the ball to be, Odegaard is who they want to be in position centrally to make the key pass or the pass before the pass, Zinchenko and Rice are great players to help get them there.
An electric right back in terms of attacking skill. His expected completion % was 75%, and his actual completion % was 89%, the largest gap in the Champions League.
It doesn’t look like he will start, but a long term favorite here since Canada’s performance against Belgium at the World Cup, I think he is one of the bset players in CONCACAF and provides skills that will be very useful against Arsenal (heavy defensive work, efficiency and buildup).
40 years old. 40.
Wide ranging skill set for the right winger.
The Vibes
Arsenal’s vibes are impeccable right now. At the end of the Group Stage they looked a bit shaky and possibly ripe for an upset but right now they are just wrecking through opponents. Porto are no pushover, but it’s hard to see them battling Arsenal. They could maybe hold out, ride some luck and sucker punch well on the break but it’s hard to avoid Arsenal dominating these 180 minutes.
The Odds
Arsenal are just a bit over 80% to advance.
The Take
That kind of feels right. That’s about as high as you can go against a team with as good a talent level as Porto. I would lean toward Arsenal though, I think they will just overload the middle, I can see Trossard, Rice, Jorginho, Odegaard moving through and opening up space on the wings so we don’t see Saka 1 v 2, we actually see Saka in space. A professional, comfortable performance where Porto has a few transitions that they will have to make the best of every single one to win the tie.