Barcelona vs Napoli Preview
The Ratios
Barcelona’s numbers look quite good, but they played 2 of the worst teams in the CL in Antwerp and Shakhtar plus probably a bad 2nd placed team in Porto. We can basically cut those down and say they played like a pretty good second placed team I think.
Napoli were bang average for a CL team like their blue Italian brethren at Lazio. Napoli played Braga and Union sure, but also Real Madrid.
Maps
Colors are based on how often a team progresses efficiently and creates in the seconds following the ball being in that zone.
Napoli through the center of the pitch were mediocre but extremely efficient down their left and in front of goal. Barcelona around the center line defend like Barcelona of old, but just looked ok pressing high and in front of goal.
The Stats
Barcelona crowd the center and carry the ball a lot, but opponents are able to block a lot of their shots and they struggle inside the box to get clear.
The Passes
All passes here are “pass types” a simple clustering algorithm to make it easier to see patters. The clustering is based simply on pass start and end.
Barcelona have a lot of the trappings of peak Barcelona (the central passes in the opponents half, but lack the box access the old teams had. No short passes into or intra the box, even in a group with Porto, Shakhtar and Antwerp. They obviously focus on holding the ball in the center rather than the wings.
Napoli have seen their left side of the box defense come under immense pressure. This is expected to be LB Mario Rui against RW Lamine Yamal.
Barcelona are almost the mirror image of their attack without the ball, oppopnents rarely had central control. They also saw the left side of their box attacked a lot. LB tomorrow is expected to be Joao Cancelo against Napoli RW Matteo di Lorenzo and RB Giovanni Di Lorenzo.
The Players
All numbers here are percentiles against players who played in similar areas.
Who is going to shoot for Barcelona? 18 year old Vitor Roque is rumored to start at LW, he has played 154 minutes for Barca in the league but they are casting around a bit right now. They are at a mediocre 1.6 xG over the past 5 games against all bottom half teams. Roque’s 8 shots in 154 minutes might be enough to trust him with their Champions League lives opposite a 16 year old and a 35 year old up top.
Age comes for us all. Lewandowski is down to .59 xG in La Liga. His last two years at Bayern were .88 and .9, first year at Barca at .74. A full SOT less per 90 dropoff in 2 years.
While his fellow hypebeast player in Osimhen has been very disappointing this season, Khvicha has delivered very well on the left wing. In the league his xG production has spiked from .23 to .41 and the progression is just so good.
Osimhen went from being rumored for a 130 million move or whatever it was to .39 xg in the league for Napoli so far. Those are Chris Wood numbers.
Probably the weakest defensive fullback we will see in the knockout stages is one of the best offensive fullbacks out there as well.
While Di Lorenzo didn’t reach Rui’s elite levels, he was very good himself on the right side of the backline and held up his side of the bargain defensively much better.
The Vibes
Barcelona’s vibes have been going downwards for a long time, Xavi saying he is leaving hopefully for them are the nadir but it feels like there is still some room to drop. Napoli in my
The Odds
Barcelona are just over 60% to advance
The Take
This is a match where there will be lots of shots through traffic, I would guess over a third, close to 40% of total shots will be blocked. Both teams have tried to press high but also haven’t been truly shutdown defenses over the pitch, expect some good ball movement.
Both teams left backs and LCB will be under pressure from the opposition in Cancelo and Rui, and both have the opportunity to handle a major offensive progression load. If Napoli can force Cancelo to defend more than Rui does, that could very easily which team has the better performance. I don’t think Barca are necessarily set up to threaten there that much right now. Can Yamal stamp his name as a true difference maker at 16 years old by torching Rui?
Can Barca get good shots from the wide players and midfield? I think that is a legit worry and Lewandowski can’t be counted on for monster games anymore.
Can Napoli get elite CF production from Osimhen? He hasn’t shown any signs of it so far this year, we could see a couple good looking attacks that turn a bit toothless from 30 yards and in.
I think this is a quite even matchup that will have a normal amount of goals despite an impressive amount of ball progression.