Bayern vs Lazio Preview
Ratios
Bayern, against an easy schedule, were strong but not overwhelming while Lazio were the most average team in the Champions League against an average schedule.
Maps
Colors are based on how often a team progresses efficiently and creates in the seconds following the ball being in that zone.
A strong Lazio ball progression attack, especially down the left side, will run up against a Bayern defense that allowed very little throughout the pitch.
Lazio defensively were very soft while Bayern were ready to take advantage at all areas.
The Stats
Lazio puts very little pressure on the ball, opponents are 2nd in long possession rate and Lazio themselves are just 28th in high takeaway rate. They limited opponents transition opportunities pretty well and made opponents work to reach the Danger Zone (30th at 2.6%). Opponents never crossed and rarely passed forward as their broadly laid back style worked to limit Atletico, Celtic and Feyenoord.
Bayern are fantastic on transition, that will be a matchup to watch. Can they get into the Danger Zone and on transition or will Lazio be able to stagnate Bayern?
The Passes
The Players
The one-man attacking machine that is Luis Alberto is at the center of everything Lazio does offensively and there is probably not another team as reliant on one player to create as Lazio are on Alberto.
His fellow former Premier League name has found Rome a better home
Lazio definitely lack quality strikers.
I had Sane as my #1 player in the Bundesliga, but his CL form has been a good bit off that in the league. .44 npxg + xa vs .99 in the league. Kane has had a simila r drop-off from 1.01 in the league to .58 in the CL. Kingsley Coman was great in the CL but is now out via injury.
One of the more underrated fullbacks in the game.
The Vibes
Bayern’s vibes are not good right now. On the weekend, Tuchel started with a bizarre and reactive lineup featuring 3 CBs and none of them de Ligt, just 3 attackers, no Kimmich and a brand new left back (Boey) who normally plays right back. They wound up getting 0.27 xG in a truly pathetic performance. Their CL performance was not overwhelming, Copenhagen ran them pretty tough in Denmark, Galatasaray did the same.
Lazio are a nothing team really, not good or bad and very concentrated with the ball but they might have a defensive setup to frustrate and stagnate Bayern. Especially with Sane and Musiala a bit off the boil and no Coman. If they can make Bayern pass well inside their own half instead of around midfield and limit transitions, this could have a big buildup of pressure on Bayern as the tie goes on.
The Odds
Bayern are just over 90% to advance
The Take
That feels quite high to me. Real Madrid are a much better team than Bayern (though now without their best player and their CBs) and have lower odds vs a similarly blah team in Leipzig. I like Lazio at these odds and like them to keep it somewhat low-scoring over the tie. Musiala, Müller, Kane and Sane have incredible individual quality and are deserved favorites but they might be a bit isolated and the Bayern mindset could lead to forcing things a bit. To actually pick them, you would love if Lazio had a fast outlet striker and not Ciro Immobile and Pedro. Bayern lacking major xG production is what I think will happen.