Bundesliga Attacking and Defending Universe

Sometimes we get so deep into the weeds here (Ermin Demirovic’s game to game forward pass reception rate compared to his positional compadres) that it can be worth it to step back and take a look at the overall universe of the league. Who is good, what types of play do they use to accumulate these goods and how do they attack and defend primarily?

Now this is with my much more rough xG model where I try purposefully to not let these huge chances outweigh everything (ex: Nunez stealing Salah’s shot in CL worth .99). Here the max a shot can be worth is .58, under the assumption basically that most shots above .4 are very slightly different than a .4 shot and that is mostly random luck that can really get overly weighted. If instead of 4 0.4 chances, a team had 4 0.8 chances right now their attack would look much better and I don’t think sustainably so. Pens are also thrown out here…overall I look at penalty box pressure a lot which I think simulates that better than actual pens drawn but here they are all out.

Offense

Leverkusen have relied a lot on set pieces in the early going, their open play attack has slipped behind Bayern by a good bit on a level even with Eintracht Frankfurt. Frankfurt however are the clear blue standout here, relying massively upon transitional/takeaway play to create with their amazing duo up top of Hugo Ekitike who has been very good and Omar Marmoush who has been truly outstanding, not just some fluky run of finishing.

Werder Bremen’s dead ball performance has been horrific, they are creating 48% of the average xG per dead ball as the average team. On the other end you have Heidenheim, Kiel and Wolfsburg who are 50%+ above league average. Frankfurt oddly have the fewest number of set pieces in the league despite the powerful overall open play attack, just fewer touches and more in space I guess. Heidenheim are amazing at generating both set piece situations (in the upper half of the league) and production from them.

Freiburg have put together maybe the most average attack you can imagine in terms of these metrics.

RB Leipzig’s early points return was comically detached from their underlying performance, showcased here well. A transition based team who doesn’t really press or push the tempo without the ball and winds up struggling to create.

Leipzig’s offensive pace is generating shots at the same rate as Bayern, just Bayern is progressing the ball 60% more per game. That’s a lot more time in which to generate shots!

Dortmund are in between the two teams in attempting to play the slow and measured build-up style. I personally don’t think Dortmund should actually do this and that they are much better when they break, but this is how they are set up for Plan A.

Wolfsburg are not really trying for any sort of hold of the ball, when they have the ball at their feet they want to get a shot or a set piece ASAP.

Leverkusen and Stuttgart are both quite quick at generating shots for how much they have the ball and how efficient their progression is.

Defense

Bayern almost break the chart here in a way that is not really fair to the rest of the league. Their game today against Augsburg turned into the bane of the Bundesliga, a bad team just getting hammered by Bayern in a 33-2, 80-20 possession deluge. It’s entertaining a few times a year but this happens way too often for what is supposed to be a top level sporting product.

Stuttgart’s push for the CL spots is limited by just how much they give up in open play, Frankfurt in every facet of the game. Frankfurt are the worst team per set piece allowed defending, but Leverkusen are not far behind. The average Leverkusen set piece against brings 250% as much xG against as the average Bayern set piece they’ve defended this year. That’s far from the only difference in the teams this season after last year they were so evenly matched, but it’s a big one nonetheless.

Hoffenheim and Gladbach are again in places alongside relegation level teams against the ball with Kiel and Bochum as neighbors. St. Pauli, so bad at creating in open play, are a strong, solidly Bundesliga level team at stopping teams in both phases.

Here we see why even with Marmoush and Ekitike at one end, Frankfurt don’t really look like a CL level contender. They just don’t stop opponents from progressing and allow shots way too quickly. Some of that probably helps create open space for the two forwards but it builds way too much pressure on their own box. Bochum and Kiel being next to you in a chart like this is not ever a good sign…Hoffenheim either.

The Union/Freiberg/St. Pauli circle of defensive competence are teams that you know will give you a good honest fight when you play them, no rollover 7 goal laughers are likely.

Bayern again are breaking the graph.

Stuttgart and BVB and RBL are kind of hard to play against but give up shots pretty quickly for teams that are not truly tearing apart opponents with a press.

Here we see another reason Leverkusen are not competing with Bayern truly this season, against the ball they look a lot like Werder Bremen or Heidenheim. They still have a lot of the ball so don’t give up a ton of xG but once opponents have the ball, there is nothing elite about Leverkusen.