Bundesliga Recap: Leverkusen With a Rare Hiccup, Freiburg's Fresh Wind on the Flanks and Bayern Cruise in Der Klassiker....Kind Of?

Terms Glossary

A few new metrics on the recap pages today: Deep Completions Share, Buildup Share and Progression Share. It’s simply the % of the team total by the top 5 players, and a comparison to what the average #1, #2, #3 get for their team.

Rechtstabelle

It was not a weekend for blowouts, despite what the scoreline for Der Klassiker might have led you to believe. Bayern won the game but didn’t destroy Dortmund, partially because they didn’t need to (2-0 in the first minutes).

Leverkusen were held down to a very even game at a spry Hoffenheim team in one of their weakest performances of the season.

We got a ton of evenly matched games this weekend.

Der Klassiker

Basically it was Tuchelball executed to absolute perfection. A very passive setup became much more dangerous when Bayern scored on a corner to open the game (dangerous on set pieces all game) and this opened space to tear Dortmund apart with their quality players on the break all game (which they’ve also done all season. Bayern wound up with a very high shot quality (xG would judge it even higher than my shooting quality metrics which cap chances…, .25 xG per shot according to FotMob) and Dortmund a quite low one (.06). But I do wonder if this is really that sustainable, Dortmund had few problems moving the ball into dangerous areas (highest danger zone % in the league) and over the teams had similar progression efficiency numbers, Dortmund also got a lot going in transition as well.

The incredible weakness of the Dortmund defense allowed all kinds of top, top quality chances but several did come in a desperate comeback situation down 2-0 late. It was a very solid win for Bayern, but with an approach you could imagine looking absolutely terrible against Man City for example, or an Arsenal, teams that are a bit more qualified in controlling games. Generally passive approaches should not allow high Danger Zone% and so many transition opportunities.

Kane was incredibly efficient with his touches, completing just 13 passes and having 1.72 xG turn into 3.08 xG from his finishes, and the 3 goals. The progression burden was evenly spread throughout the team, the normal team leader gets 18% and second most gets 14% of a teams progression, for Bayern it was just 12% and 10% for Mazraoui and Coman. Kane, Coman, Musiala and Sane are on absolute fire right now, making it hard to defend Bayern on the counter, in possession, and in basically any situation. The collection of individual attacking talent in forward areas is hard to imagine any team having an advantage on.

It was a bit of a worrying game for Bayern’s left back Alphonso Davies, an inefficient and isolated offensive performance was coupled with Dortmund having a lot of their success coming through his areas.

Dortmund’s attack was even more spread about than Bayern’s. Sabitzer and Ryerson led Dortmund in deep completion share, combining for 25% of Dortmund’s total, the top 2 players on average generally wind up with 40%. Not sure this is a good or bad thing, just more interesting. The center backs took center stage in progression, which is generally true against a passive defense like Bayern’s. While Fullkrug was great at winning aerial duels (7/8), very little came from it and he went shotless over 79 minutes.

Dortmund had offensive struggles in their midfield, where Felix Nmecha was oddly left out after impressing throughout the last 5-6 appearances and seemingly on an upward curve. Ozcan, Reus and Sabitzer struggled to make a big impact to back up the always impressive Brandt and the recently reliable Malen. Adeyemi might be considered from the start if this game had to be replayed and Fullkrug did not make a great case up top for his case as a Stammspieler.

Leverkusen’s First Real Stumble?

Leverkusen lost the xG in the opening game of the year against Leipzig, but had not since, even away at Bayern. At Hoffenheim in the rain Saturday, they lost it somewhat comprehensively (1.7-1) in a game that was full of open play slickness (1st and 3rd progression efficiencies, 17th and 18th defensive action rate).

While Leverkusen were a bit off their generally huge Fields Gained and Deep Completions edges, their now worrying inabilities to efficiently turn these into shots showed it’s face again. An opening beautifully worked move from Wirtz-Boniface-Wirtz led to a tap-in but they would not create anything like that the rest of the game despite several jaw-dropping passages of passing play. There is no team more prepared for the next move after a pass it feels like, as soon as Xhaka makes a pass to Boniface it feels like Wirtz or Hoffman is moving expecting the next ball, and it often comes exactly as they expect. The speed of the combinations is exhilarating, even in their “worst” attacking game of the year.

Grimaldo fired home 2 reasonably long-rage shots to get them 3 goals and they held on.

Leverkusen at times look too easy to play through, they usually can totally dominate the ball to the point you don’t really notice, but even the Europa League games against Häcken and Molde saw their overmatched opponents play some really way too easy stuff through their defense. Part of it is fielding really 5 almost purely attacking players, Frimpong was essentially positioned as a guy ready to sprint and lead a break.

and wasn’t exactly rushing back to get in the mix defensively

The entire second half he would not even really try to get back, often walking well behind the play right in front of Xabi Alonso making me think it was a clear tactic to just have him ready to sprint free. That part was certainly effective as he had the 8th most receiving Fields Gained in the league and those led to a ton of dangerous looking breaks, even if most of those fizzled out in the end. On another day he might have had 2 transition goal involvements.

And Grimaldo is always looking to get in the box for a goal. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, it’s just a really team of two halves, with the back 5 dropping back quickly when they lose the ball and there is not really any ferocious gegenpress at most times.

It was more of a game of individual brilliance from Florian Wirtz. He scored the opener and was all over the leaderboards for progression (15th for and 2nd receiving), buildups (6th), deep completions (2nd) and deep receptions (1st).

It was pretty impressive from Hoffenheim to even reach this sort of average amount of deep completions, Leverkusen has allowed the fewest in the league overall. They stacked the middle (1st in central touch%) with 2 forwards who stayed centrally in Weghorst and Beier (key to shot buildup with his touches) and 3 central midfielders in Stach (crucial in progression), Promel (crucial in receiving) and Becker. That led to some serious numerical advantages over Leverkusen’s pair of central midfielders in Palacious and Xhaka. You got the feeling if Kaderabek and Kramaric had been healthy Hoffenheim would have produced even more, lots of touches went begging after Stach or Becker or Bulter couldn’t quite get the ball going goalward quickly enough.

Freiburg 3, Gladbach 3

In what was in many ways a mirror image of Gladbach 3, Darmstadt 3 earlier this year, just without the red card. In that game Gladbach piled up enormous amounts of pressure and dominated the game, here Freiburg opened up dominating (1.4 xG in first 15 minutes), then went behind 3-1 due to some comical defending and then absolutely dominated Gladbach second half to come back for the draw.

After an anemic performance in the Pokal midweek (3-1 loss at home to Paderborn and a screaming session from Streich to the boys) this was a huge performance. It was keyed by a couple of the youngsters from the vaunted academy out wide in Noah Weisshaupt and Jordy Makengo who came on out wide for the ineffective Doan and Kübler and were key in increasing the pressure. These two bring a bit of speed and attacking impetus that the generally unathletic and slow Freiburg attack normally lack (last in Bundesliga in transition opportunities on the season).

Overall, the old war hose Lucas Höler was probably the man of the match (1.6 xG, led the league in receiving and deep receptions) showing that classic Freiburg blend of continuity at all levels.

17 of the Freiburg squad are either from their own academy or joined 5+ years ago.

Gladbach had 1.4 shots per deep completion on the week, first in the league, they remain first in the league in this category which has helped a team with the 13th most Fields Gained and 14th most deep completions have the 4th most shooting production. This one was thanks to an incredibly efficient attacking day from Alassane Plea, who was 2nd on the team in progression, lead the team in progression efficiency and had 5 shots for .96 xG.

Elsewhere…

Champions League contenders/title dreamers Leipzig and Stuttgart both lost to relegation candidates Heidenheim and Mainz. For Leipzig it’s just more evidence that their attack is completely lacking: 10 shots, 9th ranked progression efficiency, and no real strong transition or dead ball game was nothing new. Xavi Simons has gotten a ton of praise this year and I think Lois Openda has been pretty good at times, but the end product for this team is just not good at all.

Stuttgart got nothing from their right wing, Roualt had played well last time out and Silas is remembered fondly for his exploits in the past but he has struggled badly this season, it’s more noticeable in a loss. In open play Stuttgart were fine really (1.9-.6 xG edge) but got absolutely bullied on set pieces, Heidenheim led the league in dead ball production and got the winning goal from it. Just 62% pass completion but 19 shots (9 from dead balls) for the Heathheads, who won in front of a cozy crowd of 13,000 in the highest stadium in Germany. The loss of Guirassy will probably be over-cited for the last two losses: Deniz Undav has played two really great games and Stuttgart have created plenty.

It was Friday Night Frights for the neutrals who want ball progression in Darmstadt with Bochum and Darmstadt winding up with the 17th and 16th ranked progression efficiencies and 2nd and 1st high takeaway rates in a game for the diehards. Bochum got 3 crucial points in the relegation fight led by their hyperactive left back Bernardo.

After some wobbles a few weeks ago, Bremen have put together a couple strong performances in a row, going into Wolfsburg and going blow for blow in an even 2-2 draw puts them a class above the relegation candidates.

For now the strong relegation candidates are: Darmstadt, Bochum, Heidenheim, Köln, and Mainz. Bremen and Augsburg have separated a bit.

Köln had a chance to pick up 3 points in a chaotic game at home against Augsburg but settled for a 1-1 draw in a game with 44 combined shots and 4.5 combined xG. Köln were able to generate a 14-4 edge in transition chances and twice the Fields Gained but were unable to protect their own third

It’s getting almost comical for Union. Frankfurt came to the Alten Försterei and got just 4 shots, a throwback to early season stagnant Frankfurt right? Well they got 1.6 xG from those 4 shots, and 3 goals. Union held Frankfurt to just 1.6% of their passes in the Danger Zone, broadly the classic defensive tactic that worked so well last year but just a but of a bad luck and then a few slip-ups that are fully capitalized on. Union are not really playing that badly, but the trend is certainly the wrong way. Early in this 12 (or 13 or what is it?) streak they were at least creating a lot and showing a potentially improved attack. In recent games (Bremen, Napoli, Stuttgart, here) the attack has disappeared as well. 5 consecutive games without reaching 0.8 xG after they had a stretch of 1.8 xG on average over a 4-game stretch.

Team of the Week

CB William Pacho, Frankfurt (2)

CB Robin Koch, Frankfurt

CB Kevin Vogt, Hoffenheim

LB Bernardo, Bochum

RB Joakim Maehle, Wolfsburg (2)

CM Anton Stach, Hoffenheim

CM Leandro Barreiro, Mainz

CM Florian Kainz, Köln

LW Leroy Sane, Bayern (5)

LW Jan-Niklas Beste, Heidenheim

AM Florian Wirtz, Leverkusen (7)

FW Harry Kane, Bayern (3)

FW Lucas Höler, Freiburg

FW Alassane Plea, Gladbach

FW Deniz Undav, Stuttgart

FW Santos Borre, Bremen

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