Champions League Week 3 Recap: Shutdown Sociedad Defense, Galatasaray's High Press and Overall Quality and the Difficulty of Playing Through Feyenoord
Table of Justice
We get a total beatdown on the turf in Switzerland, Barca and Leipzig cruising past their overmatched east european opponents and then Real Sociedad with one of the more impressive games of the league this year, thrashing Benfica in Portugal. 0 points for Benfica so far.
Very impressive performances from Braga, Galatasaray, and Lens. Manchester United continue to basically play a 50/50 game every time out in almost every aspect of the game, no matter who they play the Fields Gained, the deep completions and shots seem pretty even. I doubt that will be the case this weekend.
Salzburg with a bizarre gap in box efficiency could cost them CL dreams while the Group of Death/Dreams for Neutrals gave us two very evenly matched games in PSG-AC Milan and Newcastle-Dortmund.
Group F
Dortmund 1, Newcastle 0
It was not a masterpiece of offensive soccer for Dortmund, but it was an evenly played match away at a raucous and beautiful St. James and one in which Newcastle were held broadly at bay. Newcastle presses high and defended extremely actively but were unable to turn that into even average transitional threat production, and with the ball their efficiency was below average. Dortmund coupled those two with a high block rate in their own box, leaving Newcastle’s attack looking a bit undercooked. They now have just 2.5 xG in 3 CL matches.
Gordon was very dangerous down the Newcastle left, but Wilson never got involved in the game. Sometimes I feel like he is not that effective against settled defense. Sean Longstaff was invisible with the ball, struggling badly as Newcastle basically split their midfield 3. Joelinton joined Gordon and Burn to play down the left while Longstaff joined Almiron and Trippier down the right. Bruno was effective as always through the middle, but had very limited touches with how Newcastle set up. Trippier has 108 touches, 38 more than 2nd most…but was ineffective by his lofty standards, inefficient with the ball and held outside the top 150 in deep completions, 0 key passes.
Dortmund were really active in the midfield and own half defensively. Watch the play from Schlotterbeck at 4:27 here, it’s just one of the all-time best single moves you will se a CB make and reflects a lot of the themes of the game. Gordon with a nice move to receive a progressive ball, Schlotterbeck active in defense, Newcastle with an empty center, Longstaff ineffective and Dortmund very efficient in the box.
Malen was a standout attacker for Dortmund, getting off 7 shots, .9 xG, while being 2nd on the team in Fields Gained progressing and the leading receiver. Props also to Salih Özcan for a great off the bench performance for the injured Emre Can, much tidier in possession than almost every other Dortmund player.
It’s been basically the arrow going up for Dortmund after their truly atrocious opener in Paris, they played solidly against Milan at home and now solidly home away in Newcastle. It looked like they might get just run out of this group and out of Europe and now are right in a competitive spot with the enormous return match vs Newcastle upcoming.
PSG 3, Milan 0
A game with the trappings of a dominant PSG performance (3-0 scoreline, forced Milan into vertical balls, played very short passes themselves) but without the actual bones of a dominant performance (1-.6 xG gap, small deep completions edge, transition gap in favor of Milan, Milan actually pressing high successfully at times).
Milan’s attack is still really worrying, 0 goals in the CL so far, but they didn’t get overrun at all here, pretty impressive without the ball in a way.
It was a game that needed an individual to save PSG, and that was Achraf Hakimi. Hakimi had the second most progression of any player in the CL this week, and did it at an incredibly efficient clip. Fullbacks are often much less efficient than CB and CM. Mbappe, Zaire-Emery and Vitinha did their part but without Hakimi this was likely even more stuck in the mud and could have been very ugly for PSG.
Bookies odds
PSG-83% to advance
Newcastle-48%
Dortmund-46%
Milan-23%
Amazingly balanced group with everything still out there.
Group G
Man City 3, Young Boys 1
Just absolute decimation and domination. Generating that much on transition and the shot quality/shot generation numbers being so high has to please Pep, the City attack had been leaking oil a bit. Nothing like some Young Boys to get the ol’ engine running again, right?
Interesting is that even in games like this City do not press high and do not really disrupt opponents progression through the safe areas (Young Boys 10th in progression efficiency) but they just keep them away from goal (Young Boys 30th in Danger Zone%) and generally block a high amount of shots.
In the midst of all this bounty, Mateo Kovacic still struggled interestingly.
Leipzig 3, Red Star 1
Actually some signs of quality ball-playing attack from a RB Leipzig team that has shown that very, very rarely this season. Their opener vs Young Boys was also 3-1 but looked like this:
Red Star might be just really bad though, so it’s hard to know how much to take away. Leipzig were not their usual dominant selves without the ball here though, Red Star had over 10% of their touches in the Danger Zone (most in CL) and an above average number of deep completions and roughly average shot production (got off 16 of them, mostly long range).
Could be a change in approach from Leipzig here as it was not a change in personnel. The midfield which has so often been anonymous with the ball was excellent, Kampl and Schlager ran the show as the left side generally created the threat afterwards.
This group is basically about which of the two overmatched teams can qualify for the Europa League. New format will really help in terms of getting rid of groups like this, where from the get-go there were essentially 0 games of true consequence for the non-Young Boys/Red Star fan.
Group H
Barcelona 2, Shakhtar 1
This isn’t a Pep-style Barcelona team of old, they don’t really strangle opponents with territorial dominance. Barca had just average efficiency and generally tilted this game by dominating transition and blocking 6 of Shakhtar’s 11 shots.
I still wonder what exactly Oriel Romeu is doing in the Barcelona midfield. Barcelona of old would have had probably 65+ Fields Gained vs Shakhtar at home. Different times.
Porto 4, Royal Antwerp 1
Antwerp are just a really bad team. Back to back home games against semi-gettable teams and back to back poor attacking performances. Porto scored 4 goals in the second half but you can’t call this really an impressive attcking game for them either. They’ve been solid defensively throughout the group so far, but do not look like a team to fear in the knockout stages.
Bookis have it sown up for Porto to advance, with Shakhtar down around 10%. I’d be interested at that number, Porto’s underpowered attack certainly has the ability to draw with Antwerp and if that happens it’s certainly still very much open.
Group A
Bayern 3, Galatasaray 1
What a performance. Galatasaray have been very active defensively vs both Man Utd and Copenhagen but to come out, force a ton of high turnovers and really strongly outplay Bayern at home is nothing that was really on my radar. They created a ton onf dead balls, won the territory battle, offensively were basically flawless. Bayern were able to generate in transition, but they are Bayern you aren’t going to be able to totally stop them. Gala deserve massive plaudits for how they’ve played so far in the group, inside the top 10 in high takeaway rate in each of the three game weeks.
Bayern’s backline was stifled, but their attacking players still thrived when they did get the ball. Last time out i wrote Laimer was a disaster in midfield, once again Laimer was a disaster in midfield. Shipping off Gravenberch remains a weird move.
It was the kind of game you get Harry Kane for and he delivered. He has been a bit out of sync at times with Bayern this year, but was absolutely immense in linking together a ferociously effective front three, who all played amazing games to keep Bayern’s CL streaks alive.
Icardi will ger the headlines with 1.1 xG but there were many players contributing, Sacha Boey was in my team of the week for Gala vs Man Utd and has a case again. Lucas Toerreira was immense in the middle and Kerem Akturkoglu had 1.2 xG + xA and a huge buildup involvement.
Manchester United 1, Copenhagen 0
Copenhagen are no total pushovers, they were pretty good against Bayern and the opening draw against Galatasaray looks more impressive the more we see of Galatasaray. With that said, it seems like whoever you lineup against Man Utd, you get a pretty even games and often one with lots of transitional play and mbang-average possession efficiency. That’s exactly what we got here, though with a more conservative passing style than we normally see from Man Utd games.
The Copenhagen right ran riot against Rashford/Reguilon
Bayern and United have the two worst xGD in a group that has turned out to be much more competitive than we all expected. Man United are at 50%, Gala at 45% and Copenhagen at 10% to qualify for the next round. Set up for just incredible drama in Copenhagen and Istanbul when United visit. They are a mess of a team structurally but vibes and drama seem to follow them around. McTominay vs Brentford, Maguire and Onana vs Copenhagen, probably will be Antony redemption time soon and Martial vs Bayern to secure qualification.
Group B
Arsenal 2, Sevilla 1
On a day when the center backs, midfield and fullbacks were really poor offensively, Arsenal got big time games from the Gabriels in front of goal: Jesus (1.6 xG + AG) and Martinelli (1.7) to get 3 big points.
They even led the team in defensive production as well.
This was a win-ugly type performance, Arsenal’s normal ball control and possession dominance disappeared in Sevilla as they finished just 25th in the CL on the week in Fields Gained. Tomiyasu rarely delivers even average offensvie production when he plays out wide, here he completed under 70% of his passes.
A defense that played very solidly and made Sevilla work and work and work to get into the Danger Zone (2.2% of touches there, high 17% cross rate) gave Arsenal a solid base in the game. The gap between decent, gritty performances like this and Man City's away at Leipzig show the gap between the teams is quite large. Arsenal’s step back this season has been a bit of a surprise to me. Last time out Sevilla got absolutely boat-raced by PSV (70% or greater in all ratios) and their opener vs Lens featured this
New coach and major improvements for Sevilla, playing their by far best game of the CL against the by far best team in their group.
Lens 1, PSV 1
After having tons of joy tearing through Sevilla, it was much different for PSV in France.
A game the bottom half in Ligue 1 team absolutely should have won behind an enormous effort from RB Frankowski, who completed more passes in the danger zone than anyone else.
PSV were pressing high and intensely but just couldn’t get the ball around goal at all and were awful in possession, doing zero in transition. The direct Lens attack found lots of space.
Arsenal are the only good team in this group, Lens and Sevilla are struggling badly in their leagues and PSV have sandwiched a great performance against Sevilla with awful ones against Arsenal and Lens.
Lens have a 57% chance to qualify, Sevilla at 27% and PSV at 25%. Despite the lackluster performance this week, I suspect PSV will actually play through Lens and dominate at home next match, and could get a home match vs Arsenal’s B team to end the group. I like a bet on PSV here.
Group C
Napoli 1, Union Berlin 0
0.6 total xG in this match where very, very little happened. Playing both Khedeira and Aaronson in midfield is sort of of conceding you aren’t trying that hard to score, espeically when gosens played much more defensively than he normally does.
Fofana did function pretty well receiving the ball, but struggled badly in turning that into production. Bonucci might complain to the press about being benched, but Robin Knoche is probably just a better player than him at this point. Union’s defense was essentially perfect and Knoche played well on both sides.
Osimhen was missing, he’s such a huge part of this Napoli attack. Kvaratshkelia did not go missing without Osimhen though, carrying the final third work for a team that had no one else doing much in that part of the field.
Real Madrid 2, Braga 1
Braga probably outplayed Napoli in their 2-1 loss on the opening match week and they once again probably outplayed a big name opponent in a 2-1 home loss. They’ve been really impressive, but have probalby blown their chance for advancement,
As with the Real Madrid-Napoli game, we see a game where both teams moved the ball at absolutely elite efficiencies. Last time both Napoli and Madrid were in the top 5 in progression efficiency, this time both teams are in the top 3! Real Madrid just don’t seem to care to disrupt opposition possession at all, they weren’t even really good at stopping Braga in any way except kind of I guess blocking a few shots.
It was the first bad Bellingham game I’ve seen, coming off two truly absurd 100th percentile games to open things up. He still got involved with progression, but was poor turning that into production. Carvajal was totally isolated and ineffective on the right.
Vinicius Junior maybe didn’t provide the final actions (0.1 xG + xA), but that’s what you lose when you narrow your statisitcal focus down to the last action. He was heavily involved in Real Madrid’s good attacks and their ball progression (5th most fields gained receiving, 8th most deep completions received in CL).
Look how far up Braga’s team was…it was overall a team performance without any massive individual standouts (they played without Bruma, who was their star of the first two rounds).
If you have to choose one standout it was probably Libyan DM Al Musrati, with 78 touches and a team leading buildup score…even if he wasn’t so active defensively.
Braga now have to go to Madrid and Naples, and their great performances so far will likely go towards a Europea League campaign…bookies have them at 10% to advance. Union will definitely think they can make up ground, they certainly could have won both their home matches as well (Napoli and Braga). Despite Real Madrid and Napoli not always looking elite, they both seem safe to advance from this group.
Group D
Inter 2, Salzburg 1
Inter were wildly efficient with every dangerous touch they had: 29th in deep completions and 4th in shooting production while Salzburg tipped the other way in a strange game. Dead Ball production can explain a lot of it, but transition tipped the Austirans way and Danger Zone access was much easier for Salzburg (3rd in Danger Zone % vs Inter’s 27th).
Inter won 22 tackles + interceptions while making just 3 fouls, Salzburg won 10 and committed 15 fouls.
Salzbuerg have struggled so far in all 3 games to generate much with the ball.
Real Sociedad 1, Benfica 0
Benfica remain without a goal as Real Sociedad’s defensive work remains one of the stories of the Group Stage.
Real Sociedad Opponents (Ranks in Shooting Production)
Inter-26th, Salzburg-27th, Benfica-26th
Ranks in Progression Efficiency
Inter-22nd, Salzburg-28th, Benfica-32nd
Transition Production
Inter-32nd, Salzburg-26th, Benfica-26th
Real Sociedad have been 8th, 7th, and 1st in high takeaway rate and this is the 2nd game they’ve blocked around 50% of the opponents shots.
They have a few really good and consistent offensive players in Takesufa Kubo and Ander Barrenxtea out wide but it was Mikel Merino with an incredible performance in midfield this week. 7/7 on aerials, 3rd most receiving fields gained and top 3 in both deep completions and deep receptions.
In La Liga, Sociedad have a negative xGD so this could be more about Salzburg and Benfica being a weak group.
Bookies basically say the top 2 have it sown up.
Group E
Feyenoord 3, Lazio 1
A game of teams who “want to play”. No one was going long in this game.
Feyenoord Opponent Danger Zone Pass%
Celtic-1%, Atletico-1.5%, Lazio-1.6%
Lazio at 1.6% were dead last among all CL teams this week, and that was the highest % allowed so far by Arne Slot’s team. A fascinating side that make it really hard for you to get close. The shots they’ve allowed do come at a high quality because of that but it’s also not because they are a high pressing or high sactivity team, they are just really compact and hard to play through.
With the ball again they dominate deep completions (20-7 vs Atleti, now 17-9 vs Lazio) and Calvin Stengs was again enormous in attack.
combining with Timber and the deadly Gimenez (1.3 xG) very well.
Celtic 2, Atletico 2
Atleti were time-wasting specialists again so you might tihnk it was a classic Atleti game from afar, but this was not at all.
Both teams were in the top 6 in Fields Gained for the week as a game without many tackles or blocks was one of free-flowing progression and back and forth on the wscoreboard. Celtic have been really unlucky through their first two games, but here they couldn’t slow down the offensive stars of Atleti: Griezmann, de Paul, Koke and the substitute Llorente.
Used to Atleti just didn’t let you around their goal, now each of their first 3 opponents have ranked top 11 in deep completions for the game week. Daizen Maeda wanked number 1 in fields gained receiving, he struggled a lot with producing after that but was an enormous outlet on the right for Celtic while both central attacking players in O’Riley and Furuhashi were more productive.
Feyenoord deserve first place with how they have played, they threw away a result in Madrid but get it back here. Celtic have not been bad at all but the gap looks too large to overcome. Bookies see a fierce fight with Atleti leading the way (82% to advance), Feyenoord at 62% and Lazio at 49%.
I see Feyenoord as underrated here and Atleti overrated, Feyenoord have been the much better team so far and get Atleti and Celtic at home in the ruckrunde.
Team of the Week (max 25 players)
CB Nico Schlotterbeck, Borussia Dortmund
CB Robin Knoche, Union Berlin
CB Jonathan Gradit, Lens
RB Achraf Hakimi, PSG (2)
RB Sacha Boey, Galatasaray (2)
RB Przemyslaw Frankowski, Lens
RB Hamari Traore, Real Sociedad
CM Rodri, Man City
CM Al Musrati, Braga
CM Kevin Kampl, RB Leipzig
CM Eduardo Camavinga, Real Madrid
CM Mikel Merino, Real Sociedad
CM Stephen Eustaquio, Porto
LW Anthony Gordon, Newcastle
LW Gabriel Martinelli, Arsenal
LW Vinicius Junior, Real Madrid
AM Kerem Aktürkoglu, Galatasaray
RW Donyell Malen, Dortmund
RW Kingsley Coman, Bayern
RW Calvin Stengs, Feyenoord (2)
FW Erling Haaland, Man City
FW Mauro Icardi, Galatasaray
FW Harry Kane, Bayern
FW Gabriel Jesus, Arsenal (2)
FW Lautaro Martinez, Inter (2)
FW Santiago Gimenez, Feyenoord
Top 10s
