Checking in on the Premier League's Upper Middle Class
Right now Liverpool are the class of the Premier League, with Arsenal sitting a bit behind them. Both Chelsea and Man City have enough in them to separate above the class of the Next Best. Those eating comfortably at Chipotle, sending their kids to private school, taking a couple vacations a year but checking for deals on plane tickets, buying their kid a MacBook Pro at 18, upgrading to the new Hyundai every 5 years, and not worrying about if North Face is having a sale: the Upper Middle Class.
I group these as follows
Group A, Comfortably Upper Middle Class: Fulham and Newcastle
Group B, Insisting on the Upper Just a Bit: Bournemouth, Tottenham and Manchester United
Group C, A Lot More Middle Than Upper: Aston Villa, Brighton
Group D, Nottingham Forest: Nottingham Forest
Fulham
Fulham don’t really do anything super special offensively but are a truly magical left sided attacking team. Alex Iwobi and Antonee Robinson have been immense as a combo down that side that progresses the ball oh so well. A look at Robinson vs other Upper Middle Class fullbacks
Among these 12, Robinson is
-1st in fields gained through progression
-1st in fields gained receiving
-1st in buildups
-1st in deep completions
-1st in deep receptions
and
-1st in defensive production
all that while only trailing Lewis Hall in progression efficiency (fields gained per ball loss).
That left side is extremely strong offensively without being a leak defensively. If Fulham could convert their 5th most progression in the league into quality shots a bit more, this could be a Champions League level team. 16th in shot quality, 14th in dz success rate and 14th in deep completions per field gained might signify not enough finishing on the pitch.
Defensively they are not at all a shot blocking team interestingly but aggressively contest every action you take in and around the box.
It’s a team without many obvious weaknesses or a play-style that seems to be able to be “found out”. A dominant side of the pitch, a very strong defensive setup and lots of creative players. You can imagine this team pushing on even further with a truly elite forward like a Jhon Duran up top.
Fantastic player performances: Antonee Robinson, Alex Iwobi
Very strong: Joachim Andersen, Reiss Nelson, Sander Berge
Top 3 Performances:
Bottom 3 Performances:
Newcastle
Newcastle’s balance in transitions has been restored, no longer utterly fragile post-turnover they are truly lethal after forcing an opponent turnover now with Bruno often running forward and Tonali behind him.
Defensively though they are still a bit soft which is why they not only have to currently look up at the elites but also Fulham. Fulham’s overall game is a bit more robust due to the defense and also Newcastle have taken advantage of the immense talent of Alexander Isak, whose talents at chance generation and transitional play are less replaceable than even players I love like Alex Iwobi and Antonee Robinson.
Their work against the ball is what is holding Newcastle back from reaching that CL level of play. Teams can tilt the field and probe the backline a lot easier than against other top teams.
Fantastic player performances: Alexander Isak, Bruno Guimaraes, Harvey Barnes
Very strong: Anthony Gordon, Lewis Hall, Fabian Schär
Top 3 Performances: 2-0 win away at Man Utd (1.9-.9 xG), 3-1 win away at Forest (1.7-.6 xG), 1-0 home win vs Arsenal (led for 80 minutes outshot only 10-9),
Bottom 3 Performances: 1-1 draw at Palace (outshot 16-1), 4-1 home loss to Bournemouth (2.3-0.8 xG), Fulham overall (outscored 5-2 in home/away losses, outxged 4-2.3).
Bournemouth
The beauty of Bournemouth comes in some of the details. They force opponents into extremely vertical, high tempo passes while also playing a high-tempo, direct style themselves but have been really able to limit opponents work on transitions and after turnovers very well. This is a unique and beautiful style that adds to the league in many ways but I have my doubts that it can be kept up long-term, why I slid them a tier down despite having the best xG and goal numbers of all these teams.
The bones of the attack are built around getting players in space to attack and they have a fantastic core of players who can do that well with Dango Ouattara, Antoine Semenyo, Marcus Tavernier and Justin Kluivert. The frenetic style means none look good progression efficiency wise (especially Ouattara, whose number is dreadful and likely gets him dropped on teams who are not set up like this) but all have freedom to generate chances quickly in and around the box, getting shots before the defense can set itself is the name of the game. I don’t know how they can keep opponents down so long though, stifling transition and shot quality so well with a high-intensity press (no team has allowed a lower % of progression through carries than Bournemouth) is something that can slip away through fatigue or injury quite quickly. It’s sadly why so many top teams no longer really seem to play this way, and really part of the reason Bournemouth are so fun. But of the teams on this list, they probably have the most performance backsliding potential over the second half of the season. You also wonder how they would cope in Europe. I hope they get there.
Fantastic player performances: Antoine Semenyo
Very strong: Dean Huijsen, Dango Ouattara, Milos Kerkez, Ilya Zabarnyi, Justin Kluivert, Marcus Tavernier
Top 3 Game Performances: 4-1 away win at Newcastle (2.3-0.8 xG), 1-0 home win vs Tottenham (3.7-0.9 xG), 2-2 draw at Fulham (2-1.1 xG edege)
Bottom 3 2 Performances: 2-2 draw at Chelsea (outshot 26-7), 1-1 draw at Aston Villa due to last-minute Evanilson goal (1.8-0.3 xG)….Bournemouth don’t have any other performances that quality as truly bad (a couple games they were well-beaten but not dominated by Liverpool don’t count here)…the high floor they’ve been able to build is really amazing.
Tottenham
Spurs injury crisis is well-known by now. Without the services of truly elite players like Cristian Romero out long term, his partner van de Ven, his replacement Dragusin, the goalie, starting left back, 3 key wingers, their big striker, etc, etc, etc. It’s all kind of fallen apart in a big way, but don’t totally write off Ange yet. Through the first 11 games of the season, Spurs looked like a true CL level team (Romero, Vicario and van de Ven have played 2 total matches since then). Overall they have still controlled the ball like one, just against the ball teams are rushing in and creating high-level shots quite easily. They’ve basically had 1 good defensive performance (Wolves) since those two injuries, when they started the year with 9/11. The overall numbers are not pretty, but they aren’t just atrocious either. Spurs still are 5th in the league in progression share and have a +11 goal difference. There’s no doubt the style is extremely risky and probably needs minimal injuries compared to a Forest or Arsenal much more conservative and reactive outlook.
Fantastic player performances: Cristian Romero, James Maddison, Son Heung-Min
Very strong: Brennan Johnson, Dejan Kulusevski, Lucas Bergvall
Top 3 Game Performances: 3-1 win vs Brentford (3.5-0.8 xG, 61 box touches), 3-0 at Man United (4.6-1 xG, 2-0.3 pre red card), 0-1 loss vs Arsenal (15-7 shot edge)
Bottom 3 Game Performances: 2-0 win at Brentfrod (2.1-0.9 xG, 49-21 box touch against), 6-3 home loss to Liverpool (conceded 5.6 xG, 12 SOT, 11 big chances, 51 box touches), 1-1 home draw to Fulham (only 8 shots, out box touched 36-16 despite playing final 15 minutes with a man advantage)
Manchester United
Manchester United have worked against the ball very well this season, very tough to work though, nearly an Atleti style defense that is hard to get into the danger zone against, hard to succeed in the danger zone against and overall hard to progress or work on transition against. I think their xga/shot problems are a bit fluky, the underlying fragility you see for a City or a Spurs or a Saints/Ipswich is not really there. I don’t think that’s a big problem going forward. The work against the ball looks CL level.
What makes them only second tier Upper Middle Class members on a massive budget is the extremely mediocre attack. They lack punch overall, needing tons of passes to get mediocre shots and are the flattest team in the league in terms of creating off of turnovers forced. They get blocked as much as anyone else as well, failures at forward and central midfielders mean the team just simply does not have enough threats when going forward quickly or to play a slow, settled style.
Fantastic player performances: Alejandro Garnacho, Bruno Fernandes
Very strong: Diogo Dalot, Amad, Harry Maguire
Top 3 Game Performances: 2-1 win vs Brentford (23-8 shot edge), 1-0 home win vs Fulham (2.4-0.44 xG edge), 2-2 draw away at Liverpool (33-31 close loss in box edge battle)
Bottom 3 Performances: vs Tottenham (4.6-1 xG, 2-0.3 pre red card), 1-0 win at Fulham (4 total shots, 0.25 xG), 2-0 home loss vs Newcastle (1.9-.9 xG)
Brighton
Brighton have some bad vibes and worrying numbers overall but the underlying metrics still look decent, a lot coming from the start of the season and a solid base of work against the ball.
Offensively, they devolve kind of into inefficient solo ball around the box too often (highest rate of take-ons vs passes in that area in the league), with a high blocked shot rate and mediocre shot quality and danger zone success rates. They look prety good usually moving into midfield but not so much after that, a bit like the final months under de Zerbi in terms of those aspects.
Defensively they are a high tempo team that can be slipped through for a few big chances but suppress opponents attacks well overall, they don’t really play super complementary soccer though. A slow-ish, solo attack that isn’t efficient in the box with a defense that presses and can be gotten behind makes the opposition plan pretty simple.
Soft on set pieces definitely accentuates the “bad vibes” and lack of complementary play style.
Fantastic player performances: Joao Pedro
Very strong: Jan Paul van Hecke, Yankuba Minteh, Lewis Dunk, Pervis Estupinan, Matt O’Riley
Top 3 Game Performances: 2-1 win vs City in even xG match, 2-1 loss away at Liverpool (31-24 box touch, 16-13 shot trailing), 3-1 loss away at Fulham (held Fulham to 6 shots, 1.5-0.7 xG edge)
Bottom 3 1 Performance: 2-1 win away at Newcastle (45-12 box touch gap, 2-1.1 xG)
Really there are not too many highlights here showing the lack of a ceiling that Brighton have shown. Their few games they have dominated the field totally have been draws without much xG output vs awful teams. But they also have a very high floor, even their one “bad” performance* wasn’t all that bad.
*red card games are generally thrown out here
Aston Villa
The most 60th percentile of all 60th percentile things out there, Villa’s style and players lend itself to a 50 degree day style of play all the time. They are competitive against almost everyone but do not just thrash anyone either. The ability to force opponents into horizontal passes in their own half kind of limits the game overall in terms of action* which compresses possible results. Raising the floor, lowering the ceiling.
Opponents are generally hassle-free in their own buildup play (2nd highest buildup completion% in the league behind Saints opponents) but struggle to easily get through the high block and while the offsides drawn have dropped this year they are still in the top 3 there.
Sometimes offensively it has felt they don’t have enough shooters/finishers in the lineup. Unable to fit both Duran and Watkins in well, that left one of them with other players who have big strengths in Tielemans, Rogers, Bailey, McGinn and Ramsey but you wouldn’t call any of them a true open play threat to score goals. Maybe with their total overhaul of attacking talent at the break that will change.
They are well-coached and pretty dominant on set plays this year after some wobbles defending them last season. 2nd best xG% in the league in set plays, they don’t have too many weaknesses to exploit but can’t impose huge pressure on opponents, even inferior ones. Always tradeoffs in soccer.
*Villa are 14th in shots, opponents are 13th in shots
Top 3 Performances: 2-1 home win vs Man City (1.7-1 xG win), 1-1 home draw vs Bournemouth (1.8-0.3 xG edge), 2-0 loss at Liverpool (2-1.4 xG loss, 14-12 shot loss, nearly even box touch)
Bottom 3 Performances: 2-2 draw at Ipswich (outshot 15-7), 1-1 home draw vs West Ham (14-14 shots, lost xG 1.3-0.8, lost box touches 39-26), 2-1 loss at Forest (1.8-.4 xG loss)
Fantastic player performances: Ollie Watkins
Very strong: Jacob Ramsey, Tyrone Mings, Ian Maatsen, Youri Tielemans, Ross Barkley
Nottingham Forest
Ah yes Forest. Certainly they have defended unbelievably well, sitting back deep and just absorbing pressure like the premium sponge (not those at Wal-Mart, the ones that cost 2.5x as much per unit). Opponents can’t get shots from their deep touches and the shots they do get are broadly terrible.
Where my numbers might be missing something is the transitional play, I just don’t grade them out as a super transitional/counter team and that could be possibly something I am missing or they could be just scoring at a huge rate on the few transitions they are succeeding at, which colors the memory of the average fan. Because even when I watch them or see highlights, they definitely look like a good transitional team.
In fact, they do lead at least my numbers in G-xG in transitional situations scoring 4 more than you’d expect (11 goals are t-6th in the league). So their transitional skill might be a bit of a mirage.
The set play dominance hasn’t been: they are 4th in the league in xG% from set plays.
But a team so reliant on making opponents final third play into inefficient dead ends is riding a fine line, if you can’t possess and progress the ball even at 50% levels I will always be extremely skeptical of your staying power. Particularly when your transition game isn’t really even at an average level.
This year they have 3 games where they had over half the progression (West Ham red card and 2 of the first 3 matches of the season vs Bournemouth and Wolves). In just 1/3rd of their matches do they win the overall transition battle. I just don’t see Forest as a true Upper Middle Class team yet, still a pretender. Will be an amazing story if they make the Champions League but it feels much more Union Berlin than Stuttgart, if that comparison makes sense for you Bundesliga followers.
Upper Middle Class xG% from dead balls
Aston Villa 63% (2nd overall behind Arsenal)
Nottingham Forest 59% (4th overall)
Newcastle 54% (6th)
Manchester United 50% (11th)
Tottenham 49% (13th)
Bournemouth 46% (15th)
Brighton 45% (16th)
Top 3 Performances: 7-0 win vs Brighton (3.4-0.9 xG), 2-1 home win vs Aston Villa (1.8-0.4 xG), 1-0 win away at Saints (2.5-0.1 xG, 23-5 shots edge)
Bottom 3 Performances: 3-1 home loss vs Newcastle (1.7-0.6 xG loss), 1-0 home win vs Ipswich (0.8-0.6 xG win), 1-1 home draw vs Liverpool (2-0.3 xG loss, box touch loss 52-17)
Fantastic player performances: Morgan Gibbs-White
Very strong: Elliot Anderson, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Murillo