I know this doesn’t live up to some of the brawny, comprehensive previews the devoted readers of this site and my past work have come to know and love, so you’ve been warned in the title. I find my enjoyment of the games is massively enhanced when I have at least a few tidbits to focus on going in, so I hope yours will be as well.
Bookies say Man City is 65% to advance
Will Rodri Make 120+ Passes and 50+ in the Madrid final third?
Man City love flooding the middle, and Real Madrid certainly don’t discourage it.
Real Madrid opponents rank 7th in progression efficienc, as in 7th easiest to progress efficiently against. 10th in long possession share and 8th in overall Fields Gained.
It’s hard to see any scenario where we are watching and thinking man, City are struggling to move the ball here.
Can Real Madrid get carrying on the break?
They carry for a higher share of their yards than all but 2 CL teams and have the most transition production of any team in the competition. It’s a similar question that we saw in the Arsenal-Bayern game where Bayern are devastating on the break but Arsenal just don’t allow many breaks, but even more exaggerated. Real Madrid will have their whole collection of transition ballers to pick from (mainly Vinicius Junior and Bellingham, with Kroos and Tchouameni as the quarterbacks).
Vinicius and Bellingham are the top 2 receivers on Real Madrid with Kroos at the top of the efficiency and progression list. 3 RM players are in the top 15 in terms of buildup contributions per 90: Vinicius, Kroos and Bellingham. Getting those players in a few good situations will be the crux of the Real Madrid offensive game plan. No player has a higher share of their ball-controlled buildup in transition as Vinicius Junior.
City allowed the smallest share of yardage via the carry in the entire CL (19%). I suspect much of the City defensive battle will be played out when City have the ball and the seconds right after it, once Real Madrid break into the City half with the ball at their feet and space in front they have won their tactical battle. That’s why we will probably see Jack Grealish and Bernardo Silva for City, they are some of the best defensive tools against this type of attack because they just does not lose the ball. Rodri simply is unmentioned, excellence assumed.
Will City’s left sided defenders sort of nod off?
The combination of passing patterns makes me think it is unlikely we see lots of traffic down the City left, where Akanji is rumored to be starting.
Who is the best player in the world?
This game has arguably 4 candidates for that crown depending on how you feel about Kevin de Bruyne. Haaland, Bellingham and Rodri all can make their cases over 180 minutes.
How much pressure will there be on the Real Madrid box?
They got past Leipzig but allowed 40 deep completions in the Round of 16, City have allowed 48 over their 8 matches in the CL so far. City average over 30, and while Real Madrid have some decent shot blocking center backs, if City get towards 60 deep completions, that suggests Man City could be getting near 20 shots per match.
That’s the kind of matches I expect, where City don’t take too many risks and just sort of try to wear Real Madrid down through accumulated pressure while using Grealish, Rodri, Bernardo and the wall of CBs to maintain the ball and control of the break.
Can Real Madrid use set pieces?
They lead the CL in shots created via set pieces but the game flow seems a bit unlikely that they will have a whole lot of them. They have some aerially dominant players in Tchouameni, Bellingham, Camavinga and Joselu (36/45 aerial duels won between these 4) that will have City fans worried at every dead ball.
What's happened with you in Twitter?