Progression Podium Points
5: Guehi
4: Andersen, Ward
3: Mitchell
2: Guehi
1: Zaha, Kouyate
Shot Buildup Involvement Podium Points
5: McArthur
3: Ayew, Benteke, Zaha
2: Ward
1: Schlupp
Receiving Podium Points
6: Benteke
5: Zaha
4: McArthur
2: Ayew
1: Gallagher
Palace have not reached 10 shots yet this season and look confused with the ball, rarely doing anything much other than pass the ball short. It’s taking them an enormous amount of passes to generate a shot: 52 vs West Ham, 62 vs Brentford and 105 vs Chelsea…all of those in the bottom 20 percent of shot generation this year. This couples with with two separate games where they’ve just generated 1 long fast break. There have only been 5 total games where a team had 0 or 1 long fast break this year, two of them had a red card (Leicester v West Ham and Arsenal vs Man City), one was Norwich vs Liverpool and two were Palace games. When you have Wilfred Zaha in your team this doesn’t seem ideal.
Zaha’s Disappearing Dribbles
Two seasons ago Zaha attempted 7.3 dribbles per 90 for Palace. This was unremarkable because it was in line with his previous five seasons and also in line with his stats at AFCON with Ivory Coast. His 262 dribble attempts led the Premier League by 51 attempts and he won 62% of those duels.
Last year he attempted 4 per game, a nearly 50% drop. He won just 48% of his duels.
Through 3 games this year, he’s trying 2.7 with a 37% win rate.
Zaha is soon to be 29 years old and I haven’t watched him that closely but that stat line is scary. It, coupled with his mediocre production doesn’t scream attack centerpiece for a team that can safely slide into 13th anymore.
A 180 on Early Passing
Last year Palace ranked 19th in share of early possession passes going backwards. They got the ball and moved it forward. This year…well, things have changed
This seems to be the extent of Vieira’s ideas that are visible so far. Everything else with the ball really hasn’t come off. If you squint you can see promising signs in the West Ham game with lots of dangerous completions and minimal “clogging” or stagnation outside the opponent Danger Zone.
Progression Coming from defense
Moving the ball backwards does allow Palace to progress but the progression has come overwhelmingly through defenders. The top 5 passing progressors overall are
Guehi, Andersen, Mitchell, Ward, Guaita.
Guehi has been very impressive with the ball at his feet but while he gets you a step and a half where a normal defender gets you a step, he still doesn’t get the ball to shot distance
Andersen has slipped the ball into Benteke (6th overall in terms of receiving Fields Gained, mainly in the midfield) a lot, but again you can’t rely on defenders to actually get the ball into Danger Zones.
Gallagher the Goal Scorer
The only two Palace goals came from Conor Gallagher against West Ham. He also hit the post against Brentford and came close another time in a first half flurry. He certainly has been the “highlights” player so far but I’m a bit concerned about his ability to get into and influence the game consistently. His receiving has been mediocre, a solid step behind McArthur…Schlupp-esque if you had to say
but his inability to progress the ball through passing shows a big weakness of this Palace team. They can move the ball into midfield reasonably well, possibly because they possess the ball so slowly teams drop off a bit. But once it’s in midfield there are real problems about getting it into the box and actually creating a shot. Brighton and Norwich are the teams most similar to Palace in terms of this concern.
Cheikhou Kouyate, midfielder?
For a team badly needing linking buildup to attack, Cheikhou Kouyate in midfield is like a box of Ritz when you’ve been running stairs in 100 degree heat for an hour. This is what he returned when pushed into midfield vs Brentford
A Strong Defensive Team?
They’ve put up great defensive numbers so far, allowing just 3 total xG with games away at Chelsea and away at West Ham under their belt. Only 5 teams have allowed fewer xG and 3 of those teams are at 2.9. Is this a reason to celebrate?
I don’t think it is. Palace have relied on a minuscule xG per shot allowed to suppress this xG number, less reliable than shots allowed in a tiny sample. And opponents are accessing the Danger Zone a lot. Only Arsenal (red card vs City influenced) and Burnley (block kings of the world with an entire ethos built around this) have allowed more Danger Zone completions against. Palace did block a lot vs West Ham but not vs Brentford or Chelsea…it’s very hard to say they are setup to shut down lots of dangerous possession over and over.
Overall I’d be a bit worried about what I was seeing on the pitch if I was a Palace fan. Michael Olise has big potential and could fit exactly what they need in midfield…but they need a lot and the ideas behind the play seem a bit scrambled in the early going. Figuring it out and staying in the league to allow all these exciting signings to develop into a team is crucial.