How good is Jesper Lindstrøm?

Eintracht Frankfurt's exciting young attacker

The most recent cover boy of the German weekly soccer magazine Kicker* has accelerated up the reputation and goal charts this year, scoring 5 goals for Eintracht Frankfurt, who will winter in the UCL. The goals are one thing, but how he’s played to catch the eye is another. Just watch this goal vs Union Berlin

*American football desperately needs this type of magazine, along with baseball desperately needing a Wisden Almanack type review. Anyways…

When you look him up on the sadly StatsBomb-less FootballReference page, you see his #1 most similar player as Son Heung-Min. An upcoming Denmark World Cup, rumors of Arsenal or Dortmund moves and a Transfermarkt value that has gone from 10 to 17 million over the past 10 months means this will be a guy that could be at the top of a lot of casual transfer talk over the next year. Let’s dive into the data to find out how good the 22-year old is right now.

Goal Production

He is at 0.49 non penalty xG per 90 in his 700-odd minutes this year, that ranks 28th among 275 broadly attacking players across PL, Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A. That is the 91st percentile.

His 0.11 xAG is in the 38th percentile, ranked 158th/275.

His last year numbers were 0.39 and 0.27, percentiles of 81 and 88.

His 2.55 shots/90 over the past couple seasons is 61st percentile, while his xG/shot is well above average at 0.16.

Progression

He receives progressive passes at just the 16th percentile for attackers (those playing 50 yards from goal and in).

He progresses the ball through passes and carries at the 41st percentile (2.86 fields gained per 90).

Lindstrøm’s fields gained per ball loss is .19, an efficiency that ranks just 18th percentile among attackers.

His % of touches that turn into Frankfurt shots within 15 seconds is in the 63rd percentile overall among attackers.

How does this compare to his Eintracht teammates?

No other Eintracht attacker has a better xG, but many of the multi-faceted attack have similar xAGs and Lindstrøm is near the bottom of receiving, and at the bottom of efficiency.

There are two problems holding back Lindstrøm’s offensive game, neither happen in and around the box where he produces extremely well for his field position behind the striker. The first is his efficiency with the ball: he loses the ball 46% of the time he has it, the 21st highest rate among Bundesliga/Premier League players. He is an awful dribbler, 11-for-32 on the season with even his coach suggesting he needs a lot more strength. His success rate in take-ons is 25th out of the 30 most frequent Bundesliga dribblers.

Generally solid players who lose the ball so often couple that with being an elite receiver and/or an elite shot involvement/end product player. If you are getting the ball in traffic without options in front, it’s fully understandable to lose the ball so often. Unfortunately for Jesper, he is one of those at the top who receives the ball the least, this is the second problem with his game.

In the bottom left corner are players who do not receive well and do not progress efficiently. This doesn’t mean they are all bad players without a role: you have energy/press merchants on battling teams like Brendan Aaronson + Anton Stach, end product and raw volume guys like Florian Kainz, and then the more relevant comparisons: what we will call the peripheral attacker continuum. These are players who are not going to rack up 15+ goals in a season, but also are not going to be crucial ball progression outlets. They are not the main man in their attack really but can range from wildly effective secondary option to peripheral guy who is constantly subbed off after 61’ and 1 shot as the commentator mentions him for the 3rd time on the night: “Didn’t really get in the game, did he?” I can’t tell if I want to call it the Daniel Podence Special or the Yoane Wissa special.

Lindstrøm has the best end-product of all these guys, but is that really that good of a thing? Is this player type really one that you want at a Champions League contender? Profligate with the ball, not a big outlet for those behind them: that’s not Martinelli, Saka, Odegaard, Foden, Neto, Nkunku, Becker, Diaby, Trossard, Maddison, etc. Those guys are in the opposite quarter.

Now Lindstrøm is maybe the best you can buy as this extra, off-ball, box-arriving guy if you have a forward holding the ball up, a progression wizard in attack, and a sort of all-rounder on the other side, he might slide in well. Leicester sort of fit this category and maybe Leizpig as well but with the buzz around him and the kind of clubs that are looking at him, I do not think he will be a good value in the transfer market. He is not that flexible in attack and his weaknesses will be hard to hide in top top games or a top top side. Frankfurt are a very good side for his skill set with an efficient progressor like Kamada and to a lesser extent Götze running the show and a great receiver in Kolo Muani up top, it allows him to have a low-touch, high-impact role.

Defense

He’s got the decent classic numbers: lots of blocks and average amount of tackles and interceptions but let’s look at Frankfurt’s progression map. How well do opponents progress down the Frankfurt center/right where Lindstrøm plays?

It’s inconclusive…as most defensive metrics are. There are a few patches of green but behind his area it’s darker red. Looking at shot involvements maybe increases the worry-meter a couple percent more but I think basically all I can say is the range of defensive player he currently is is probably somewhere from 20th-60th percentile.

Conclusion

Lindstrøm is an extremely exciting player to watch, part of a team that has been one of the best stories in Europe over the past two seasons, but if I was a Big Dog club like Arsenal, Dortmund, Newcastle, looking to build a team that can one day win the Champions League I would not be shopping for the Lindstrøm’s of the world. For teams who are looking to compete for Europa League spots in the PL and who have a certain offensive constellation already in place, he might be a great fit. But the physical weakness in duels, progression efficiency weakness and receiving weakness are too many red flags for me to sign off on giving a big money move to.

Still very much looking forward to Denmark games to see him, as well as Champions League come 2023.