Inter vs Atletico Preview
Ratios
In what looks like at first glance to be two relatively even teams, we see Atleti putting up their numbers vs a very poor SOS (Celtic, Feyenoord and Lazio) while Inter battled past Real Sociedad, Benfica and Salzburg). Edge Inter, by much more than the ratios show.
Maps
A very middling Inter attack will go up against an Atleti midfield that has Swiss cheese qualities.
This will be a more interesting side of the ball, Atleti moved the ball dangerously throughout the group (though we will break down how telling that is a bit later) while Inter were rock solid, the middle and right side high up the pitch were devastating. Koke, Saul Niguez and Reinildo will try to help Atleti build up down that side against Darmian, Barella and Calhanoglu.
The Stats
Inter were very happy allowing opponents long possessions but forced them wide and allowed a quite low progression efficiency. Allowing long possessions with the commensurate low high takeaway rate, along with a low progression efficiency is a rare combination. In the box they have kept opponents from getting off shots at a high rate and blocked a bit above average. Keeping opponents in front and being very hard to get through or behind is the strength of this Inter side. They give you time to carry the ball.
Offensively, they spammed crosses throughout the group stage without any other distinguishing offensive characteristics.
It’s not your older brothers’s Atleti. I once wrote an entire article on StatsBomb about how to measure defense based around Atleti’s style. Now they are just middle of the pack in the Champions League in most metrics. They did make it very hard for opponents to get shots off per touch in the danger zone, and played somewhat similarly to Inter in they played a low pressure style against the ball, allowing opponents to play horizontally trying to limit the fast breaks and quality of chance. It could be a quite dull game as these two defensive styles match up, the opposite of the beautiful PSG-Real Sociedad game last week.
With the ball, they don’t cross despite having the ball wide a lot. They don’t carry the ball that much, it’s not a very threatening attack overall in my opinion despite the green areas above. I think that was fueled by weak opponents and a Celtic red card that led to a 6-0 win.
The Passes
You can see the conservativeness of the Inter ball possession game here.
The Players
Probably the best Inter player, a 2-way player in the midfield who is all over the place against the ball and gets into the box.
Inefficient wingbacks who are not heavily involved with the ball who get forward, get into the box and generate attacking action while keeping their area defensively tight is what the Inter attack is about.
While in the league both Thruam and Lautaro have fired at about the same rate (.55 npxG), Lautaro was the preferred weapon in the CL (1 npxg to .25 for Thuram).
The one true global superstar in this tie. Was arguably the best player at the World Cup until fading a bit late in the tournament, he has everything in his locker and can change the game in every way.
Not great with the ball at his feet but the defensive link to the hard-working Simeone sides of old with his graft in midfield and can pop up in dangerous areas to threaten goal.
Difference making midfielder I have loved for a long time.
How these three work against the ball will be crucial to the tie. If they are easy for Inter to get through, Inter can tilt the field forward and take control.
The Vibes
I am not fully clued into the Spanish/Italian vibes here but it does seem like Inter has been kind of overinflated by the ether of football twitter. They are not some PSG lurking, with big time power all over the pitch. They are just a decent Italian team.
The Odds
Inter 60% to advance
The Take
I actually like the team with de Paul/Griezmann and think the sort of blunt Inter attack is just set up for a Simeone turn back the clock performance. This tie should be pretty boring to watch in terms of what is happening with the ball as both teams will probably play it very safe and very horizontal and we won’t see much stretched play or transition opportunities. It might be one to watch for pure balls though. I think Atletico can pull it off despite Inter having the more impressive statistical resume. I just think it’s not a style of play that lends itself to dominating Atletico and I still believe in a close, low-scoring Champions League tie I take Simeone.