Leeds at the Break

a unique play-style has created a solidly average Premier League team

We are going to make reports over hopefully all 20 Premier League teams over the next week. Get everyone all educated, it helps me to do these to understand what teams do and what their players do, hope it does for you also.

Tale of the Tape

A classic dead-average team, in basically every way.

Leeds games are unique. No games feature less progression than Leeds and it’s certainly not through games being played at a slow pace. The pace is frenetic and the ball changes hands constantly, just look at the efficiency numbers (lowest in the league both sides) and touches in established possession numbers (lowest in the league both sides).

If either side makes it’s way through the trench warfare that is the midfield in a Leeds game, there are chances to be had at the more lightly defended box. Lots of high speed attacks (see the counter numbers) crash into the box and the progression and rare deep completions we actually do see turn into danger at a very high, very green on the image above rate.

Territory Maps

A map combining shot production with progression efficiency vs the average PL team.

Pass Clusters

It’s all about verticality with Leeds. They don’t play horizontal, slow balls across the back or back to the goalie. They tend to get it wide and play forward.

Defensively, Leeds do not press high and chaotically but once you are in the midfield there is not time on the ball for you, then you are in the battle, the weeds. The ball often gets going vertically then, as the pressure cranks up.

They are not a high pressing, 70 yards up the pitch type team.

They are a team that doesn’t want to shell around their own box and let you ping it back and forth comfortably.

Attackers

Summerville has been a revelation, a true home-grown top prospect emerging at a young age, Basically he does everything quite well for an attacker, outside of generate shot volume. Now that is probably the most important thing for an attacker, but it’s a fantastic prospect profile.

Bamford is a huge miss, a guy who can turn service into xG like this is a rarity and if he could stay healthy he have probably been in Doha and playing in the Champions League. A career 0.59 npXG per 90 is elite.

Brendan Aaronson seems like he should have more takeaways just watching him but he doesn’t actually win the ball back like a true pressing forward, leaving his profile quite lacking. He doesn’t shoot and while he does provide good final balls, his progression and receiving is overall quite a mediocre read.

Midfield

Sinisterra and Harrison are really attackers basically, playing right on the cut-off line. Both are involved in over 8 buildups per game, more than all the attackers while putting up mediocre for attackers, good for midfielders xg + xa numbers. If you can only play one you have to play Sinisterra as he brings more defense and more efficiency with the ball.

Kristensen has been an offensive disappointment this season, losing the ball a ton without much upside.

Marc Roca looks absolutely Rolls-Royce on the pitch, providing an enormous boost to Leeds as Jesse Marsch’s key transfer. Top progression, efficiency, shot buildups and a high takeway rate and duel win rate as the central ball-handler for Leeds he has been immense.

One problem is both he and Adams are not guys who get forward and find space, and without fullbacks who are great at progression that leaves the team without much interplay between deep and attackers, and at risk of the supply lines being easier to cut off. Adams probably should be more aggressive with the ball, he slows down a team that looks to get forward and attack constantly. Can he take a step forward as a receiver and progressor, right now his reputation has run ahead of his production but he’s a smart, hard-working guy and all of us US fans will be watching his development closely.

Defenders

Goalie

Almost no goalie progresses the ball less, loses it more, or has worse efficiency than Meslier.

He is near the bottom of the PL with -3.7 post shot xG saved.

He is 4th in the league in outside box defensive actions per game.

Pass Combos

Most Progression

The variety of horizontal spots is great, but the verticality becomes clear here. This is every Roca/Aaronson pass, no time to go sideways for Leeds is exemplified here.

Most Shot Buildups

The Rundown

A fascinating and unique team that plays like a mid-table, solidly average team in basically every aspect. Teams like Brentford, Fulham, Palace are miles off the pace of Leeds.

They play tough defense in the midfield, forcing opponents vertical after they leave the safety of their goal and play vertical themselves with a top-class midfielder in Roca and have done this all without their top-end striker in Bamford. It looks unlikely he will really ever be healthy again though so waiting on that is not a solution.

Another attacker needs to step up, Summerville looks a top prospect but probably not ready for top production right now. Sinisterra has hinted at top quality performances, hopefully his health allows him to settle and show out in the second half.

Rest of Season

16% to finish top 10

22% to be relegated.

This feels much to high for relegation, Leeds are much better than at least 8 or 9 teams and that should be enough to get to safety quite comfortably.