Man City vs. Copenhagen Preview
Ratios
Copenhagen put up mediocre numbers (40-45% ratios) on an extremely tough schedule of Bayern, Galatasaray, and Manchester United while Man City had the easiest CL schedule there was (Leipzig, Red Star and Young Boys) but absolutely destroyed their opponents over the 6 games. Getting 87% of the deep completions is truly just preposterous.
Maps
Colors are based on how often a team progresses efficiently and creates in the seconds following the ball being in that zone.
A mediocre Copenhagen attack against a dominant City defense.
City’s attack has been perfect in the CL while Copenhagen’s defense has been quite easy to roll though, particularly through the middle and down their left side.
The Stats
Copenhagen have shelled up decently to some extent after a reasonable attempt at a press, making it hard for opponents to get shots off, but the shots they did get off were at high quality. And opponents were able to progress and get the ball into the Danger Zone pretty easily. City generally take shots slowly per danger touch and at a high quality, so this isn’t a big concern for them.
Copenhagen couldn’t really stop transition at all in the group stage and the beauty of City is they are able to tear you apart that way as well as being the best team in the world at controlling possession and building long possessions.
Opponents were unable to carry the ball against City at all, that was a pretty big part of the Copenhagen attack that will be hard to recreate against City.
The Passes
All passes here are “pass types” a simple clustering algorithm to make it easier to see patters. The clustering is based simply on pass start and end.
City have allowed opponents all the time to putt it around deep in their own half, then forced lots of long balls down their left side, and absolutely no safe possession down that side. Just the 8th best high takeaway rate but still fewest Fields Gained allowed.
There will be lots of Man City possession from the halfway line to the Copenhagen goalmouth, that is for certain. Can Copenhagen force City into lots of crosses and not their preferred short range, danger zone passes? They forced a good numbers of them during the group stage, while City steadfastly and generally refuse to cross.
The Players
All numbers here are percentiles against players who played in similar areas.
Efficient fullback who gets into a tackle and doesn’t slow down the attack at all.
Viktor Claesson is wildly inefficient but can get into the box and generate shots for the team while working gard defensively on the wing.
Get in the box and get shots off, basically no one does that better. It’s also the most important part of the game.
Tied with Bellingham in a twitter poll for best players in the world right now. I think he is probably #1 but I haven’t dug too deep into Bellingham, who has a great case.
Perfect with the ball basically and nearly impossible to beat without it during the group stage, Dias was immaculate.
The Vibes
With de Bruyne and Haaland back and City clicking into Death Star mode the vibes are pretty much perfect for them. Copenhagen are pretty much happy to be this far, but they did play somewhat aggressively during the Group Stage against Bayern and Manchester United so I hope they come out and give it a go.
The Odds
Bookies have City impossibly strong to advance: 95% or so.
The Take
Anything more than 30 minutes is hard to make a case for basically anyone in Europe to hang with City at all. They are a killing machine and will destroy Copenhagen.