I know this doesn’t live up to some of the brawny, comprehensive previews the devoted readers of this site and my past work have come to know and love, so you’ve been warned in the title. I find my enjoyment of the games is massively enhanced when I have at least a few tidbits to focus on going in, so I hope yours will be as well.
Bookies see this very close with PSG 53% to advance
Barca left side, get ready to defend (in the second leg?)
With Hakimi and Dembele connecting down the PSG right it has become a high volume and high quality part of the pitch for the French giants. Hakimi is suspended for the first leg however, meaning Cancelo could get a lighter load defensively, which is crucial for Barcelona’s attack as well. Come the second leg, this should be a promising side and matchup in Catalonia.
Dembele is 2nd in progression, 1st in receiving and 1st in buildups for PSG, 2nd in deep completions and 1st in deep receptions.
Barca to have the ball a lot in the middle of the field
Ilkay Gündogan is the key man here and remains one of the best offensive players in the world: 2nd on Barca in progression, 1st in receiving, 2nd in deep completions, 3rd in deep receptions and 1st in buildups. He is the absolute center of everything they do. And with this pass map above, you’d expect an attacking midfielder to be even more in the midst of everything than normal as PSG also funnel opponents to the center while Barca crowd the center routinely.
With time to play or not?
PSG are first in high takeaway rate and first in defensive action rate in the CL. Their opponents completion% of 74.7% is the lowest in the competition. So while the map shows a lot of passes coming in the center of pitch for Barcelona, don’t be fooled into thinking this is some sort of Real Madrid passive defense where they are broadly just seeing how they can break…they are an active defense that will harry Barcelona.
The big question: who will dominate the ball?
Barca have had 59% possession, PSG have had 65% possession so far in the CL. We see PSG play a very intense out of possession game but also Barcelona have some tendency to concede counters so far this CL campaign, even though they have played a very weak schedule. They’ve conceded basically an average amount of counters and PSG are deadly on the break (t-most transition situations created in the CL). I would expect them to maybe not push as high to dominate control of the ball because Barca have shown an inability to convert possession to shots a lot and PSG can trust their defense all over, particularly in the midfield.
PSG in general have passed very conservatively (31st most verticality) while pushing opponents into vertical game (3rd) and the press means the shots they have allowed are blocked at just a 15% rate, lowest in the CL. I don’t expect them to sit back completely, but playing at a 45-50% rate of ball possession could be a nice sweet spot here.
Barcelona in general are not at that PSG or old school level of horizontal passing and ball control domination in general, they play somewhat vertically for their expectations (22nd). It is hard to call exactly where the center of gravity will be and what level of freneticism it will be. Something to watch.
Box heavy game?
Barcelona play the 4th highest share of their passes in the Danger Zone (5.2%) but also allow an above average share at 4.6% (15th). PSG are 11th and 16th, so expect a lot of the ball being in dangerous areas.
Will Barcola be back?
One of my favorite young players in Europe is Bradley Barcola for PSG. He’s a huge receiver, progressor and works very hard off the ball and has shown a bit of danger (.6 xg + xa per 90) at 20 years old. With guys like Barcola and Dembele, PSG almost free up Mbappe to make finishing runs more than he has in the past. It’s not clear if Barcola will be healthy though, and PSG lose a bit without him.
I really like PSG in this matchup, I think their difference makers are just a step above Barcelona’s. Mbappe is the best player on the pitch and his supporting acts of Barcola and Dembele are probably better than any of Barcelona’s wide players. Gündogan is still an elite player but PSG’s defensive system is stronger than Barcelona’s. I think the 53% odds are too low and think PSG have multiple ways to win this one. It feels like they remain a bit underrated broadly due to the past PSG shenanigans that this team doesn’t really have any of.