October Check In on Newcastle

What else is there to do during an international break?

International break time, so we pause the most well-structured and thrilling league play in any sport in the world (Premier League) to send players out to play incredible matches like these:

Spain-Georgia, Portugal-Ireland, France-Azerbaijan, Germany-Luxembourg

All for very questionable reasons. Why do we need these matches? Why is giving Liechtenstein the same platform as France to qualify for a World Cup a good idea? Why is making Croatia play the Faroes, Gibraltar and Montenegro 6 times in a qualifying group a good use of time? There is another article for another time on the absurdity of the European qualification system and another on the 3 international breaks in the fall that just kill incredible momentum…but not now. Now we are taking the vitals on the Newcastle seasons. We have room to breathe and look at the big picture, so let us peruse the overall gestalt of this project.

Newcastle

11th in table: 9 points from 7 matches and 6 GF, 5 GA.

Glossary

Schedule Strength: 52.6%…average opponent “score” (blend of ratios) is 52.6% so maybe Newcastle’s early performances are 2-3% more impressive than they look. t-3rd toughest schedule in the early going.

Season Long Targets I set

xG: 58%…right at it!

FG: 55%….well below

Transition: 57%….below

Top 6 Progression Efficiency….10th, not really close

Deep Completions Allowed 14th or lower….9th, not really close.

The top line number vs a tough schedule looks really good, but the overall picture is much foggier. I think this is the benefit of looking more at the minutiae of how a team plays with these box scores I compile rather than just the xG. Newcastle have xGed like a top 4 team but the minute-by-minute play (in open play) has looked much more like a bang average team than one that can fight back and compete in the Champions League.

We will come back to the overall play at the end but let’s look at the questions I wanted to track heading into the season in my preview:

Preseason Questions

1. Is there enough oomph in the midfield and center backs to handle the ball effectively to give Newcastle a new dimension of game control?

The answer here is no. I thought they needed to advance towards 55% of the Fields Gained and to be a top 6 or so Progression Efficiency team to be able to control games with the ball. They have not really been close in the early going. It is not super surprising as the midfield has been the same 3 guys:

Sandro Tonali has looked a bit different in play so far this season, less buildup around the box and a bit more efficiency in progression (62nd percentile) but no one is ever going to confuse him for Marco Verratti.

Bruno Guimaraes is a very good player that has seen his efficiency slide down to about average as he’s become even more of a vertical player (96th percentile).

Joelinton is becoming a big drain on play: 23rd percentile efficiency as an extremely low touch player (9th percentile Fields Gained) means he has basically become an aerial duel and tackle specialist, who doesn’t really tackle as much as you think.

20% of the lineup can’t be progression zeroes

I think it will be very, very hard to play in any kind of dominant territorial way with both Joelinton and Dan Burn (13th percentile efficiency, 14th percentile fields gained) in your starting lineup. Both win aerial duels and bring great attitudes and stories to the pitch, but for Newcastle to evolve there needs to be upgrades on both.

Sven Botman has been ~ok and Malick Thiaw has looked like a heady and active defender but neither have shone as heavy ball-handling defenders.

2. Who will the striker be?

Nick Woltemade is the striker for now and struggling to get involved. 26th percentile or lower in shots, buildup, deep touches, fields gained, aerial production and fields gained receiving with a few big chances inflating his 32nd percentile .3 xG per 90. It’s been a very tough start covered up by goals going in.

3. Will the defensive transition work continue? (had gone from terrible to very good on defensive transition)

It’s been solid. The dead ball gap has been more impressive, Newcastle are 2nd in the league in dead ball xG% behind just Arsenal. The same guys I criticize as anchors on the open play with the ball (Burn and Joelinton) are immense in dead ball situations it’s only fair to point out. I do not think this is a sustainable way to build a CL team: to muddle along sort of average in open play and dominate set pieces.

4. Is there enough depth?

Right now the fullback position, where it looked like the depth was sufficient, is ravaged. Kieran Trippier has shown some strong progression work but his legs look to be fading as his defensive work has looked weak so far. He’s also 35. Dan Burn is the other fullback right now. With a midfield that has shown it cannot be the progressive engine, having these as your only fullback options while Hall and Livramento recover is not enough depth.

5. “Questions over whether the defense is trending back towards elite or can still be a bit too rickety are unresolved.”

Right now the defense looks top-line elite in terms of shots and xG allowed but there are too many questions to call the whole thing elite. Opponents huge success rate in the Danger Zone makes me wonder if the entire set-up of allowing roughly average deep completions and slightly below average efficiency can result in so few shots and xG without any real strength at the back. Newcastle were incredible at breaking up opponents buildup in structured situations pressing last year and have been again this year. But how can a team be incredible at shot prevention with those fundamentals if they aren’t blocking shots and making it hard to access Danger Zone?

I think overall the trend is this is a team who is very good against the ball, and can stifle teams who are not really elite offensive attacks when they want (see Bournemouth…though that performance shows when Newcastle do this, there is essentially nothing in attack). However the games against elite teams saw 19 and 20 shots conceded vs Barcelona and Arenal at home and the games rarely felt totally in control.

A few total smotherings of opponents who really did not compete hard (Aston Villa, Leeds and Nottingham Forest) make the numbers look elite, but it feels like a tough side to break down, not peak Atleti.

Transfer Worries

Yoane Wissa was a lot of money (50+ million) for a 29 year old player without an elite statistical run of seasons. He got seriously injured before ever arriving in Newcastle and his debut still seems a month away before he heads off to AFCON for a month. Not good vibes here. Also, how can they keep getting away with playing AFCON in the middle of the season. It’s incredible this was ever allowed to happen, much less now. Ah, sorry you shouldn’t have signed Africans! That’s why your season and title/CL/relegation battle was totally disrupted for 6 matches. Newcastle are suing FIFA to help pay his wages and he has yet to train with the team. He is nearing 30.

Jacob Ramsey had the most Jacob Ramsey debut possible: a tantalizing half that was full of understated receiving and carrying quality while not making a huge impact around goal, before having to be subbed off for what turned out to be a serious injury. Not seen since.

Woltemade we mentioned above, looks nothing like a 90+ million striker.

Malick Thiaw has been solid, he has a case to be Newcastle’s best center back so far.

Anthony Elanga though has a few exciting runs and has offered a good receiving option behind, but overall has been very disappointing. Inefficient in open play and taking just 0.7 shots per 90, he has stacked up much worse than Jacob Murphy so far.

The Isak Money was pretty heavily invested this summer: 158 million in from Isak and Longstaff and 274 out for Woltemade, Wissa, Ramsey, Thiaw and Elanga. I am not writing any of these players off (it’s early, Howe bleeds them in slowly and is one of the best at improving players overall) but if I had to set an over under on how many become above average Premier League starters regular long term, 2 might be the number. The summer window looks worrying to me as that much outlay should return either stars or lots of above average players.

Back to the play

The team is lacking players to push them up towards goal. Woltemade is dropping deep, but not effectively. The midfielders are not box crashing, the fullbacks not getting the ball into dangerous areas, and Elanga has not been decisive down the right. The team has one of the lowest Gray Wall ratios, meaning they spend a lot of time in the Gray Zone from 30-40 yards from goal without cracking into the Danger Zone well. Aston Villa, Forest and Burnley are down there with them…not great attacking bedfellows. There is not really any attacking flow: Newcastle have created more xG from open play, non-transition situations than

-West Ham

-Burnley

-Brentford

Not great!

Defensively, things are good but with worries they aren’t as good as they seem. They’ve disrupted the non-Arsenal and Barcelona opponents well and have limited shots compared to opponent possession and territory at an insanely good, and probably unsustainable rate. The softness around goal

The Numbers

Preseason Top 5 Odds: 52%

Now 33% to finish Top 5

Teams like Bournemouth and Palace are in with a real (better than 20%) shout now and the point per game to reach top 5 has grown.

Grades

Here the expectation is perform like a Europa League (6th-7th place in PL) player

Exceeds Expectations: Bruno Guimaraes, Harvey Barnes, Valentino Livramento, Anthony Gordon

Meets Expectations + Developing: Sandro Tonali, Malick Thiaw

Meets Expectations: Kieran Trippier, Jacob Murphy, Sven Botman, Fabian Schär

Below Expectations + Beginner: Nick Woltemade, Anthony Elanga

Below Expectations: Joelinton, Lewis Miley, William Osula, Dan Burn, Lewis Hall

Beginner: Jacob Ramsey

The Big Takeaways

This feels like a big moment following this international break for Newcastle. The race for the Champions League spot, at least the #5 spot, is still wide open. The check-up has revealed some worrying issues, a lot of work needs to be done to get back fully healthy and at the level needed. They claimed they were going to lose the weight last Jan 1 (become a more dominant possession oriented team) but they have added 7 more pounds since then. The top-line xG number hides what has looked a lot like a mid-table team with a lot of disparate parts that are not clicking yet.