One Question Weekend Preview: Arsenal v Liverpool
We will start with a few pass maps. If you haven't been following along (shame on you first), I create these maps with 50 different pass types created through a clustering algorithm. This cleans up pass maps and makes them easier to analyze and visualize. A single team pass map looks like this:
That shows just the passes Arsenal allow relatively often or relatively less often than normal team. What I am doing for this game is combining the offense and defense maps of Arsenal and Liverpool and seeing where the game might be funneled. First, when Arsenal have the ball:
If previous tendencies continue on we might see a lot of passes back and forth between Bellerin/Lichtsteiner and Mustafi with occasional balls to the middle for Torreira.
When we look at types of passes where completion% might be above average we don't see much down Arsenal's left-hand side where presumably two-way ace Trent Alexander-Arnold will be patrolling.
When Liverpool have the ball, expect the field to be tilted much further forward. Camping in midfield, with a leftward lean.
Arsenal are oddly terrible in a small sample size defending that right to left own-half pass you can see in bright blue in the completion% map below. Opponents have completed every single one of their 49 attempts (not surprising it's an easy pass) and 7 times have taken a shot within 15 seconds of that pass. No other team in a top 4 league has allowed more than 5 and the average is 2.
From these maps and a general perusal of the shot tables (Liverpool are taking 15 and Arsenal conceding 14), it's pretty clear that we should expect a Liverpool bombardment on Arsenal's goal. Our one question is Can Arsenal generate goal threat through sustained attack?
The bookies love the odds of goals, putting the over under at a non Man-City league-leading 3, 3.5, with Liverpool's clean sheet odds at roughly 26-27%. I'm not sure I see a way for Arsenal to keep up with Liverpool in the shot volume game. Look at the maps above, Arsenal will face a lot of heat trying to bring the ball through the middle of the pitch.
Arsenal this year have had a bit of a problem in generating truly great supply, in past years you could basically count on Mesut Ozil to be at the top of any sort of Danger Zone (within 30 yard radius of goal) or Key Pass list and while he is still good, there are signs of slippage. The last two years he has 2.7 and 3.1 open play key passes, this year he is well down at 1.5. He is still 7th in Danger Zone completions per 90, but that's not the truly elite numbers he's previously been at.
The more worrying this is they don't have the depth of creators in completing passes into the Danger Zone: Aaron Ramsey is 23rd per 90, Lacazette 37th, Iwobi 47th, Bellerin 61st, and Mkhi 62nd. Liverpool for example have 5 players in the top 30 (Salah, Firmino, Shaqiri, Keita, and Milner) vs Arsenal's 2. Man City have 9 and Chelsea have 5.
The old days of Arsenal just completely dominating territory in front of goal and playing for one of those "Arsenal goals" as they pass up a handful of solid shots looking for a tap-in are sliding away. They are still around goal a lot but they don't dominate like they used to.
They could be in extra trouble without fullback Hector Bellerin, who has joined Ozil as a key ball progressor. Bellerin might miss out through injury, if he does it raises questions as to just how Ozil will get service. Bellerin and Xhaka have provided the majority of his service in advanced areas and if Xhaka is at left back and Bellerin out, there are serious questions as to if their replacements can get the ball to Ozil. With a shaky pipeline to feed him and the ball likely stuck at the back right a lot anyway, it becomes a fair question to wonder if Ozil might not be the best option from the start for Arsenal. Should Arsenal get more speed on the pitch and get someone who might do more defensive work (Ozil 1.2 tackles+INT per 90)? I think so.
The answer to the question above is I don't think Arsenal will be able to build up sustained attacks deep into Liverpool territory often, so electric shot generators could be more dangerous up front. Guendouzi's suspension definitely hurts this plan, he's a player who likes a longer ball and is good at it.