Premier League Recap Week 2: Live Wire Liverpool, The Life Force of Pep and Narrative Correction
Enough recap to get you through the week
Glossary for metrics and terms here.
Tottenham 2, Manchester United 0
This was an all-action, extremely entertaining game that was slightly edged by Spurs. United dominated the first half as Spurs started very shakily, taking 14 shots (most in 15 years away from home) and Spurs were lucky to hold them off the scoreboard after 3 or 4 bad givewaways to open the game. In the second half Spurs created their best chances and got the win and the extreme narrative boost. I think the narrative has gotten wildly carried away in both directions here, Spurs have been exciting and pretty good to start the season but the Ange-love and CL planning is premature. United have also been pretty good and could have easily won today, generating a ton via transition and playing a generally wild and open offensive style. The ability for one dominant narrative to come out of a single, low-scoring soccer match is a reflection on the power of the media, the lack of complexity of the viewing public and the lack of serious lives we all have: like why do we care so much?
United and Liverpool have many similarities in the early going, both struggling to keep opponents away from their goal, both struggling to hold possession, but both still looking very threatening with the ball (Liverpool more so).
Spurs energy levels without the ball have been great, Ange absolutely has them buzzing about but they desperately need to fix the transition defense, both Brentford and United have gotten way too many clean chances from basic moves.
After a quiet week one, it was a huge day for Son in open play and creating. Just 1 shot maybe makes you think he struggled again but not so, at all. Most deep completions in the league and 2nd most deep receptions as he and Maddison showed a brilliant relationship.
Pape Sarr was a massive upgrade on the no-show from Skipp last week, Sarr scored the goal and was one of the league leaders in shooting while also contributing in attack.
Kulusevski had some nice moves early in the match but faded and struggled overall, he’s a ball progression specialist being played on a team that is using fullbacks to ball progress inside and has 2 midfielders absolutely bossing the ball progression game, can he adjust his game to be an end product and Danger Zone threat? Richarlison is also a bit adrift trying to nail down his spot as the lead striker as Spurs are obviously looking through the market.
The midfield is just probably too chaotic with the ball. All three love a risky ball and none have ranked inside the top 100 in either week in efficiency of progression. Mount was buzzing around early, making several nice recoveries and contributions but faded and Eriksen provided something the others clearly do not with his efficient ball progression.
Casemiro and Mount need to play safer probably, if just for defensive purposes as so often United lose the ball too quickly. Bruno’s lack of efficiency you take because he just creates so much: top 10 in completions and receptions in the danger zone, leading the team in progression, buildup .8 xG, .6 xAG, etc, etc. It was an amazing performance, but the other two have much less to show for it. When you have 1 Jimi Hendrix, you don’t need the two guys playing bass to constantly swing for the fences as well.
Antony’s lack of production is worrying, he’s not even a ball progression specialist to make up for it. The price tag obviously looms over him but he doesn’t look starter level for a CL contender. He’s definitely in danger of getting the Office Space meme
Brighton 4, Wolves 1
Brighton once again absolutely destroyed their opponent in transition, creating the most opportunities and production on the break, with two almost identical Enciso→March goals early in the second half sealing a wild 10 minute span where they scored 3 on the break. The first goal, the one March didn’t score (Estupinan did), was probably the best Solly play of all 3 as his pass sprung Welbeck free to score. For like 3 years I somehow labored under the impression Solly March was black…Solomon being more Nigerian of a name and thinking he had that ancestry. Needless to say, I watch Brighton more now than I used to.
Those transition goals were great but the underlying performance overall was not a 4-1 really, Wolves were well in this and it was a competitive contest. Wolves might have just had an average amount of transition chances and production but a lot of that came early in the game, and they just barely missed a few more golden ones. Fabio Silva had several chances on easy and rapid breaks and through 40 minutes Wolves had a 9-4 shot advantage and only trailed from Mitoma dribbling through the entire defense (including Semedo and Kilman literally trying to pull him down and failing) to score.
Brighton generate space so beautifully, maybe Luton and Wolves haven’t properly packed the final third like West Ham will but right now it’s absolutely brilliant to watch how they stay spaced and move.
While March scored 2 and set up a third chance, what really stood out was just how much he worked defensively.
Gilmour looked a much better fit than Dahoud in taking a central role and not losing the ball (1 incomplete pass) while moving the team up.
Milner I don’t think is a season-long solution, the attack has not been fluid down the right and while they’ve defended well in his area I have my doubts on whether that can continue against teams with powerful left sides and whether he can run all year.
Enciso and Pedro and Welbeck and Ferguson are just an abundance of talent up top.
A week after a top-class performance and a spot on my team of the week, Nelson Semedo was torn apart defensively and didn’t contribute on the ball in a very poor performance.
Matheus Nunes has looked a quality offensive player in every category except shooting and him being presumably suspended after his red card will be a big loss for Wolves as the rest of the midfield in Gomes and Lemina have been peripheral with the ball and the depth in that area is incredibly light (Joseph Hodge and Boubacar Traore the only others listed).
There are hints of Neto returning to form and fulfilling the huge potential he showed pre-injury, he’s been in and around the danger zone a lot in the opening two weeks and he’s produced a good bit of xG. Efficiency in progression with the ball is the only thing lacking now from the complete profile he once showed.
Manchester City 1, Newcastle 0
0 chances created through dead balls in this game, the least vertical passing, the lowest shot quality, the lowest % of completions in the danger zone of any game this season and the highest block rate…and yet it was enthralling to watch somehow.
Newcastle had a line of 5 in defense with the midfield 3 and Almiron/Gordon pretty narrow to threaten City with the ball and City answered with first finding Walker in space down the right (yellows for both Gordon and Barnes) before eventually finding the solution in Phil Foden finding space behind that line, receiving, turning and going at the Newcastle backline. Foden was amazing finding space, and then often finding Haaland for a chance or several near chances. It was a world-class performance.
City’s ability to push so many forward in possession (including Akanji moving into midfield) but be basically totally solid against a talented Newcastle transition attack is simply incredible. There were only a few chances at a transition (two coming from a seemingly fatigued Rodri making uncharacteristic mistakes) but once Gvardiol stopped Wilson in a numbers advantage and that was pretty much it for Newcastle chance creation.
Haaland joined Rodri in looking absolutely drained late, but the focus and intensity of City to grind a game like this after a midweek game away in Europe this early in the season was impressive. Somehow when managers don’t sub I both think it’s a -EV play in the moment but possibly +EV overall as it shows the belief in their players. How can you not love Pep’s intensity and engagement?
Rodri I think gets punished by how I make my maps with how often he touches the ball, his per touch buildup metrics can look poor at times because he’s just on the ball so often (31 more completions than anyone else in the game).
Grealish’s struggles up against Trippier didn’t help out Gvardiol at all, in fact it was quite impressive from Trippier who at times has had the reputation of not being up for it defensively, he certainly was Saturday.
Newcastle could move the ball decently well when they had it, City did not press frenetically or disrupt their passing moves in the center or high, they just kept them from getting the ball into dangerous spots or getting quality shots.
Barnes looked dangerous when he came on, the Gordon/Barnes debate is one of those good problems to have as both look quality right now.
The defensive strategy of sitting off and not contesting City’s possession around and inside the halfway line is evident in where the defensive moves were made by the midfielders.
Liverpool 3, Bournemouth 1
It wound up being a pretty comprehensive win for Liverpool despite 3 pretty large early defensive errors in the first 8 minutes (Anthony goal ruled out for offsides from a simple long ball down the Liverpool right, Trent giveaway leading to Semenyo goal and Alisson error giving Bournemouth another great chance) and playing a man down for a long time after a bad red card call.
Liverpool got their transition game going against probably the easiest team to do so against, Bournemouth did not sit back at all they played an active defense (3rd highest action rate) and tried to at least push high and take the ball away.
Still a few things to worry about for Liverpool, Bournemouth got over 6% of their completions in the Danger Zone, one of the highest rates in the league, Liverpool didn’t block any of the 13 Bournemouth shots, and the Cherries got quite a few transitional opportunities and 3 big chances.
Liverpool have been below average in both games so far at holding the ball for long stretches, that didn’t limit the attack today but another thing to keep an eye on. They don’t defend particularly well and haven’t shown ability to hold the ball. This year is actually quite amazing for neutrals with top teams like Liverpool, Brighton, and Manchester United playing incredibly open, risky and goal-friendly styles so far.
It’s truly a great time to be a fan of the league, it has the highest share of top talent, top coaches and many of the top teams play exciting and pleasing styles. There will be fantastic races probably at the bottom and for the CL spots and I think the title race will not be a walkover. Feels like early 2000s MLB or late 2000s CFB for enjoyment of the league.
Endo offered a bit of something else compared to Mac Allister and Szobo who generated a ton of action but failed to hold onto the ball very well in midfield. I’ve been sort of unconvinced of the massive need for a player like him, thinking basically Mac Allister or Thiago or Jones have the skills to play that role, just need a bit of coaching to it, but this game and Klopp’s thrilled words about adding more balance to Endo when he arrived make me see the other side a bit more.
It was a vintage van Dijk performance, he just missed a goal while passing beautifully and being dominant in the air.
After a bit of a nothing game vs Chelsea, Jota was back with a monster performance here as all of the front three got in on the 26 shot act.
I don’t know what this says about Bournemouth, I am a bit worried about them still. They created a decent bit in this game but were so soft defensively and lots of the best chances came via relatively unforced Liverpool breakdowns. I remain unconvinced their high press and attempt to ball-play will actually lead to much chance creation and I remain convinced their back-line will bleed shots and goals.
West Ham 3, Chelsea 1
Fuck your buildup and progression play and midfield combinations says David Moyes and West Ham, we get points a different way. They’ve lead the league both weeks in share of completions in the danger zone, shots per deep completion, and passing verticality while being right at the top for dead ball production and cross rate. Get it forward, get it up into the box and get a shot off. Defensively they have been quite good both times limiting opponents shots relative to deep completions (which on both ends was a Chelsea bugaboo last year that has continued over to this season).
It’s a throwback style of play, emphasized the most by continuing to play Soucek and Coufal, who I’m not sure any other PL team outside Sheffield United would play. Conviction sometimes helps though, and they are off and running towards safety.
Chelsea’s press got going and they dominated the progression game to a huge extent but the struggle continues for getting shots from progression and stopping opponents from doing the same.
These sort of maps that look to see how teams played in open play all over the field do not really reflect how West Ham set up. Look at their midfielders, average defensive action was barely outside the box with both fullbacks inside the box. They don’t care about winning the ball and moving nicely through the “Gray Zone” in midfield where goals are not imminent. They want to protect their goal and score in their few touches up top. It leads to ugly play and awful metrics but maybe that with having a higher quality of player than those around them is enough for safety.
Ward-Prowse fits right in this ethos, with the dead-ball prowess and the concern for action over retention or efficiency.
It’s not in open play where this Chelsea team has struggled, these metrics will generally look…Sterling.
Raheem is a great example of the positional dominance, the most deep receptions in the league and 5th most fields gained receiving overall in what was a turn back the clock performance in many ways for a player I sometimes tended to write off. However, he still had just 1 shot, 1 KP and 0.2 xG + xA from all this danger zone action. His 53 pass attempts were his Chelsea career high, so it’s a tough game to kind of judge. He lost the ball 22 times, produced no end product but was key in building up and getting the ball forward. I guess the question is if Sterling isn’t providing end product and Chilwell is your left winger that leaves just Nicolas Jackson and then midfield box crashers as true end product guys.
It’s a shame there is no Nkunku here, the team feels a bit light on talent up top.
Brentford 3, Fulham 0
Just a prototypical Brentford performance here, dominate dead balls, dominate shot quality, don’t allow transition to the opponents and get the ball into the box. Worrying for Fulham in they couldn’t turn these long possessions into dangerous touches or good shots and the sluggishness of their attack makes it look very lacking without competence up top.
To be able to control the box without controlling the ball is Brentford’s M.O. I still don’t know exactly what I think about them, I doubt them constantly and still do but sort of want them to do well at the same time. The (presumably?) data based team building and conviction they play with is fun to watch.
Jensen was immense, doing all kinds of work defensively, handling the ball a lot in open play, making 7 long throws into the box, of which 5 were completed. Right now I counted those in deep completions, which is why he was only behind Son for most deep completions on the week, they might get shifted to some set piece category in the future, but don’t take anything away from his performance Saturday.
The attacking map doesn’t reflect how good he was as he isn’t an efficient open play ball mover.
Pinnock and Collins were dominant, losing nothing in duels as Fulham struggled to turn dangerous possession into shots and the shots they did have were low quality and blocked often. Collins was silky on the ball as well, what were Wolves doing selling him?
Awful attacking play from Pereira and Jimenez stifled the Fulham attack, no key passes from those 2 and no shots inside 15 yards. Longstanding worries about buildup down the right and midfielders who only slow the attack down (Reed in this case) reared their head.
Lukic has shown a bit, it will be interesting to see who they pick in midfield now that Palhinha is back and healthy and up top the potential of Willian and Traore makes me think there must be some way to not see the Jimenez/Pereira duo again.
I certainly need to adjust these maps to include some sort of volume element, right now the efficiency of Reed is simply per ball loss so since he just played 12 passes he looks amazingly green as he just lost the ball once amongst some solid progression. Further experimentation and improvement will follow.
Nottingham Forest 2, Sheffield United 1
This was not a beautiful game for the neutral at all, neither team could hold the ball for long, neither team could create that much in transition and neither team could get close to the opponent goal quickly (DZ% both well below average, with Sheffield United dead last). Both teams crossed a lot and played vertical balls a lot, while they had the lowest and second lowest share of central touches of all the teams who played so far this weekend.
In the end it was Forest who deserved the win, they edged the open play battle and were a bigger threat on dead balls but watching the game it felt like after the early opening goal they might go on and make a clear statement with an emphatic win. This was a win, yes, but Sheffield United are a mess right now and at home it felt like Forest could do more.
Neco Williams basically had the entire left wing to himself as Gibbs-White constantly dropped to the middle and it didn’t really work at all…the left side of the Forest attack, including Mangala as the left-sided midfielder really struggled on the ball. Johnson was crucial in buildup despite weak efficiency, Aurier, Gibbs-White, Danilo and Awoniyi all helped make up for the nothing coming from the left.
The center back pairing of Worrall and McKenna might look ok statistically but there were 3-4 comedy errors that Sheffield United didn’t fully exploit.
I feel bad for Osula and Traore, slight forwards who keep getting bombarded with long balls because Sheffield United can’t do anything else. Those two have won 4 aerial duels and lost 26 between the two games. For deep league watchers and Sheffield United fans, the second half performance of Yasser Larouci was probably the best bit of the season so far. Ben Osborn, the RWB with 5G/3A in his 5th season with the Blades, has led the team in deep receptions so far. It’s not pretty, I don’t see a real path outside of luck to staying up.
Aston Villa 4, Everton 0
A game that stopped being a contest relatively early, so maybe some of these metrics are sort of like analyzing half of a friendly along with a contest. Everton got a lot of their progression and dangerous work after going down 3-0 early into the second half.
Villa controlled the game pretty easily, holding the ball for long stretches while also generating a lot of great chances on the counter. The extreme xG per shot created (.23) comes from a pen and a few monster chances as Villa didn’t actually totally dominate the final third (9th most deep completions).
Martinez and Luiz were probably the two standout players on the day, while the Leverkusen duo down the right in Bailey and Diaby combined to add juice to the Villa attack. I’ve been skeptical for the last couple years when these huge clubs are rumored to come in for Luiz but the way he’s playing right now I am changing my mind quickly.
Danjuma certainly did enough to get a run of starts for Everton, the club lacks depth and quality everywhere. Tarkowski, Keane, Young and Gueye look a bit labored at times, Doucoure feels like not exactly a prototypical attacking midfielder and while Garner has actually performed pretty well out wide, he wasn’t advertised as that. The fullbacks remain a total disaster that has to be addressed in the market. Danjuma popping was the only positive to take from Sunday for Everton, it’s a shoot of green in a dry looking plot of land.