PSG vs Real Sociedad Preview
Ratios
Both teams played a brutal group stage: PSG vs AC Milan, Dortmund and Newcastle while Real Sociedad got Inter, Benfica and Salzburg, and both came through looking very strong. Real Sociedad had the better xG ratio while PSG dominated the progression and field tilt games to a great extent. The 4-1 loss to Newcastle sticks in my mind but PSG were very good in the Group Stage.
Maps
Colors are based on how often a team progresses efficiently and creates in the seconds following the ball being in that zone.
PSG with the ball against Real Sociedad against it will be the best matchup of the Round of 16. The #3 team in possession efficiency, #1 in transition chances and #2 in deep completions against the team that allowed the worst possession efficiency, 2nd-least transition production and 2nd fewest shots and 3rd fewest xG.
With the ball, Real Sociedad were not an elite team at all, quite mediocre.
The Stats
This will be a pressing tilt full of activity. The teams ranked 1st and 2nd in high takeaway rate in the Group Stage and 1st and 2nd in defensive action rate while forcing opponents into playing vertical passes. One big defensive difference is Real Sociedad do get back to block shots a lot (2nd at 35%) but PSG do not at all (15%).
Real Sociedad were fantastic on set pieces in the group stage while PSG were just average at defending that, that probably will be their route toward scoring. Will be interesting to see where the ball is when Real have it, they never used the center of the pitch but PSG opponents were there all the time.
Can PSG get their carry game going, 2nd in the group stage behind just Man City in % of yardage coming from carries (Hakimi, Mbappe, Dembele, and Zaire-Emery all major players there), but Real Sociedad stifled the space for opponents to carry (just 23% of Fields Gained against came via carry, 28th).
The Passes
All passes here are “pass types” a simple clustering algorithm to make it easier to see patters. The clustering is based simply on pass start and end.
They force a ton of vertical long balls from opponents way inside their own half, and opponents rarely have time to putt it back and forth inside the Real Sociedad half down the wings. Which is exactly what PSG do do a lot, particularly down the right with Hakimi.
As we saw earlier they tend to totally avoid the center of the pitch, never playing these sort of control small passes that indicate control and numerical superiority through the center.
The Players
All numbers here are percentiles against players who played in similar areas.
Probably the best fullback with the ball in the world.
Mbappe wasn’t at his normal standards for goal threat in the Group Stage (just a solid .48 xg), but the fact he combines a usually elite goal threat with elite progression and efficiency from the wing makes him such a dangerous weapon.
Another efficiency/progression monster with receiving skills at just 17 years of age.
Lee Kang-In and Bardley Barcola were fantastic in shorter stints in the CL Group Stage.
On a team without many big time offensive standouts, these three lead the way.
The Vibes
The vibes for the first 7 minutes of the Real Sociedad match against Inter at home are among the best vibes from any match I’ve seen this season. Go watch it if you can, high energy, huge emotion, raucous atmosphere, excellent stuff. PSG I have no clue about the vibes, I saw them once against Newcastle and the vibes looked awful but the numbers overall racked up in a big way.
The Odds
PSG are about 65%
The Take
This is by far the best matchup of the round, I have developed a bit of a soft spot for Real Sociedad over this CL campaign and really hope they advance as I don’t care for PSG at all. But I think they will need to really push their dead ball edge a bit as I don’t see them creating much at all. In a 2-legged tie though you just need a fluky goal and to create one more and you have a good chance.