PSV Eindhoven vs Dortmund Preview
Ratios
This has more than a whiff of Europa League about it. PSV were just your average CL team, beating out two poor competitors in Lens and Sevilla for the #2 spot behind Arsenal. Dortmund got overpowered against PSG, Milan and Newcastle but basically got pretty lucky to win the group.
It’s the Peter Bosz Derby. The former Dortmund coach has PSV sizzling.
The Maps
PSV is an attack that hasn’t been clean in buildup but has been dangerous the closer towards the opponent goal they get.
Dortmund have been leaky all over, particularly down their right hand side. That has been the weakness of PSV.
An attack that was just kind of good directly in front of goal but atrocious in buildup and midfield.
Will go against a defense that has had some weakness down the lefthand side.
The Stats
PSV played a very stretched game, firing vertical passes and allowing vertical passes against them. Opponents poured into the danger zone at a high rate, and got a lot in transition. PSV fired shots at will, without worry whether it was a good chance or not.
Dortmund were great at blocking shots, but were not really impressive a tmuch else. Opponents broke into transition a lot while dominating the ball. This could be a game for direct passing fans, neither team likes stagnant possession at all
The Passes
Dortmund opponents tend to control the ball in midfield around the center circle. Vertical buildup down Dortmund’s right has been common and particularly effective.
The left side (Sergino Dest’s side) has been particularly easy for opponents to access. Donyell Malen is the danger here for Dortmund.
The Players
The teams have changed as much as any from the group stage to now. PSV had a megastar performance from Noa Lang in the group stage, he was one of the best players in the Champions League. Nobody else was even close to him, probably the single most important attacking player in the competition and he is now out via injury. They’ve replaced him very well in the league (where they have 62 points from 22 matches, 20 wins and 2 draws) but can they do so in the CL where the level was higher and the going not at all so easy? I think it will be an enormous blow.
USA internationals Sergino Dest and Malik Tillman were pretty anonymous in the Group Stage.
Dortmund have added Jadon Sancho and Ian Maatsen in December to a very punchless team that had very few standout players other than the backline having to make an uncomfortably high number of defensive interventions. Fullkrug is a very good striker and I completely buy into the stereotype of Dutch teams being possible to bully, Fullkrug certainly can be an aerial bully.
The Vibes
PSV are putting up one of the greatest seasons ever in the Eredivisie and Dortmund are putting up one of the ugliest top 4 races in the Bundesliga, every week it feels like they are slogging through another match yet somehow are still 4th. They were gritty in a tough group stage but there has never really been any moment this year where Dortmund have played like a team deserving of being called a CL level team. They somehow got through a group of death and got a pretty nice draw.
Eredivisie Vibes just always scare me away in Europe. They so often give away an idiotic or soft goal or two and that just seems to kill.
The Odds
Dortmund are 53% to advance
The Take
I like Ian Maatsen and Jadon Sancho additions and think the loss of Noa Lang will be too much to overcome for PSV. It should be a bit of a scratchy game, with not great pass completion rates on either side and a good, but not overwhelming, number of transitions. Maatsen and Sancho really help Dortmund there and I think Malen gets the better of Dest and Fullkrug bullies home a goal as well.
Whoever wins this tie will be a team most want to draw in the next round.