Let’s get straight into it, I will throw all the charts and data at you up top and then summarize below how it could play out.
Brazil-South Korea
Tale of the Tape
Maps
Progression here refers to how many fields gained per ball loss a team gets…the color is how well the attacking team progresses and the defending team has defended this area compared to WC average. So Argentina should have a lot of smooth progression around the Australia box in this example.
Fields gained is a way of measuring how much of the field you are eating up: if you are 10 yards from goal and make a 5 yard pass, this is 0.5 fields gained. The same is true if you are 100 yards from goal and make a 50 yards pass.
I have tweaked this to boost sideways/backwards completions in dangerous areas, previously you got 0 credit for a sideways completion 11 yards from goal which makes no sense.
Shot generation is simply number of shot buildups per area (touch within 12 seconds of a shot) compared to WC average.
Player Maps
Total fields gained progressed via pass and carry is on the x axis, the y axis is receiving fields gained. Size of flag is fields gained/ball losses.
The Rundown
Brazil have dominated at the xG and shots level more than they have at deep completion or progression level, to an extent larger than most other top teams in the tournament. On the latter two metrics, they look like a possible semifinalist and not really clear favorite for the title but it’s sort of like France in a way where their team is constructed to limit opponent breakouts or clear chances and not to dominate progression. This seems to be gaining steam as the “smart” way to play a tournament. We will see.
So far in the tournament Brazil have allowed the fewest xG per deep completion (60% lower than average) and fewest xG per fields gained allowed (65% lower than average), both by quite a huge margin. For example a deep completion against Serbia turned into 5x as much xG as it did vs Brazil.
I expect South Korea will have several spells of good-looking play, if they can turn that into double-digit shots or not will probably be the question for if they have an effective attack or not today.
Both teams have generated shots very quickly in possession and that seems probably the big question, can South Korea keep Brazil from turning their presumed possession edge into a large quantity of average xG chances?
Richarlison is the key man of course, can the detached striker get inside the Korean defense and get the ball in the box. You would guess that Vinicius down the South Korean left vs Moon-Hwan Kim is a great Brazil advantage.
Paqueta has been a big disappointment so far, I would not start him and would go for Casemiro and Fred instead if I was Tite.
After a couple sub performances, Kang-In Lee finally started vs Portugal and was very dangerous getting involved in shot buildups and a top progressor for Korea. The 21-year old should start over the goalscorer Hwang Hee-Chan on the Korean right.
Brazil has played with a true back four, all essentially functioning as center backs as you can see on the shot buildup/xG chart where Telles/Silva/Sandro all pop up in the same spot.
The depth in attack makes it hard to choose starters for Brazil, but you assume Martinelli and Rodrygo will get solid minutes no matter what happens.
The Bookies Say
Brazil at 87% to advance. I think South Korea are much more frisky than your Polands, Australia’s and even Morocco’s and Brazil isn’t necessarily a step above France, Argentina, or Spain. I see this as a bit too high and will be wagering on the Koreans after they rewarded me in Group H.