The Big Croatia-Japan Preview

a tasty round of 16 match

Let’s get straight into it, I will throw all the charts and data at you up top and then summarize below how it could play out.

Croatia-Japan

Tale of the Tape

Maps

Progression here refers to how many fields gained per ball loss a team gets…the color is how well the attacking team progresses and the defending team has defended this area compared to WC average. So Argentina should have a lot of smooth progression around the Australia box in this example.

Fields gained is a way of measuring how much of the field you are eating up: if you are 10 yards from goal and make a 5 yard pass, this is 0.5 fields gained. The same is true if you are 100 yards from goal and make a 50 yards pass.

I have tweaked this to boost sideways/backwards completions in dangerous areas, previously you got 0 credit for a sideways completion 11 yards from goal which makes no sense.

Player Maps

Total fields gained progressed via pass and carry is on the x axis, the y axis is receiving fields gained. Size of flag is fields gained/ball losses.

A bit more speculative here, the x axis is simply how often a player has taken the ball away (blocks + interceptions + recoveries + tackles are all counted) and the y axis is how well opponents have progressed and generated shots through his zones of defensive responsibility. I glance at this but do not put tons of stock into it.

The Rundown

Can the Japanese backline of Itakura and Yoshida + a third continue to hold up?

They will likely be under a good bit of pressure. Japan have conceded lots of possession, and while Croatia are not at all Germany or Spain they have certainly shown an affinity for their share of the ball. It will be less of the waves of possession Spain and Germany have but I expect Croatia to have it and put pressure on. Those two have been active defenders but you would describe them as holding on

The midfield of Kovacic and Modric with Sosa out left and Perisic a bit forward are a quartet that will generate the pressure,

but who will it be that actually generates the goal chances?

Kramaric had one of the games of the tournament vs Canada but didn’t get a shot off against Morocco or Belgium. Livaja had a similar resume, starting together with Kramaric vs Belgium and Canada and having just 1 shot in his 100 minutes vs Morocco/Belgium and a solid performance vs Canada.

Personally I would have loved to see more minutes for Orsic, not just because I loved him years ago enough to write a Facebook message to his agent trying to provide my Europa League analysis to him to help his contract demands, but his tiny sub appearances were very intriguing.

Can Japan get their direct counter attacks going through the Croatia middle and right?

Japan have been great at creating xG off their progression, only Germany/France/England and…Cameroon have more xG per field gained than Japan so far. I would guess each Japan progression to be roughly 70% more goal dangerous than the average Croatian progression.

Croatia are old and were open to counters in the buildup to the World Cup, they have kept it decently under wraps so far, impressively vs Canada a team with countering skill, but it’s certainly the area Japan will look to to create something.

Can Moriyasu play his best players?

Play the best plays is the daily fantasy sports mantra, and that simple wisdom is basically 80% of an international managers job in my opinion…to get your best players in the spaces they play the best.

Japan’s lineup decisions have been quite bizarre really, Asano has been excellent in every way and is yet to top 45 minutes. He should start, Maeda has shown nothing. Doan also has started twice on the bench while looking great and Mitoma has yet to start. All play lots of minutes off the bench but they are likely the 3 best Japan players so far. To give themselves the best chance of advancing, these three need to play 70+ minutes.

The Bookies Say…

Croatia is 63% to advance. Now I am holding a Japan to win the World Cup ticket, so take that bias in mind but I think this is much more of a 50/50 and well-balanced match. Croatia controls territory a bit more, but doesn’t fully control dangerous attacks against and that is Japan’s strength. Japan has shown somewhat of an ability to slow down top, top possession attacks while Croatia has been stuck in attack a few times as well.

Japan has their weaknesses as well, but this looks 50/50 and one of the best watches of the round for me.