The Big England-Senegal Preview
all you need to prepare yourself for the big game...well at least 70% of it
Let’s get straight into it, I will throw all the charts and data at you up top and then summarize below how it could play out.
Tale of the Tape
Maps
Progression efficiency is fields gained per loss compared to the WC average in that area.
Fields gained is a way of measuring how much of the field you are eating up: if you are 10 yards from goal and make a 5 yard pass, this is 0.5 fields gained. The same is true if you are 100 yards from goal and make a 50 yards pass.
I have tweaked this to boost sideways/backwards completions in dangerous areas, previously you got 0 credit for a sideways completion 11 yards from goal which makes no sense.
This is simply the US attack + Dutch defense in each area.
Shot generation is simply number of shot buildups per area (touch within 12 seconds of a shot) compared to WC average.
Player Charts
Total fields gained progressed via pass and carry is on the x axis, the y axis is receiving fields gained. Size of flag is fields gained/ball losses.
A bit more speculative here, the x axis is simply how often a player has taken the ball away (blocks + interceptions + recoveries + tackles are all counted) and the y axis is how well opponents have progressed and generated shots through his zones of defensive responsibility. I glance at this but do not put tons of stock into it.
The Breakdown
Senegal have one guy who stands out bigly, a right back by the name of Youssouf Sabaly. He’s been incredibly efficient, progressed more than anyone else on the team and turned the Senegal right attacking side into a hot zone. His most common pass recipient is the other danger man: Ismaila Sarr and number two is the other likely starting forward Boulaye Dia, who is second on the team in xG production.
This is so far the most dangerous way that Senegal attack that everyone involved have to know about it: you would assume Rice will be the one most responsible for snuffing it out. I do wonder though if a better way of focusing on stopping it is to relentlessly attack it with Luke Shaw and…well that takes us to our next point.
Marcus Rashford is who I would play on the left, along with Phil Foden in the floaty midfield role. The xg + xa charts have them off the scale, this is small sample size stuff but Sterling has been woeful for Chelsea and looked physically off it all year. Mount’s performance in this tournament has been peripheral and his receiving abilities should not be crucial against a Senegal team unlikely to shut down the midfield. Saka and Kane are great receiviers, England need producers and particularly producers who can make something happen just outside the box and I think Rashford and Foden are clearly the better picks here.
England came into the tournament with a great record of suppressing counters throughout the past two years but there have been slight cracks here and Senegal have been ready to exploit those, needing very few passes to get a shot off. You wonder if Senegal will have Koulibaly, Gueye, and Ciss cover for Sabaly to try and set him and Sarr free quicker or maybe even go 3 at the back?
Do not expect much beautiful interplay or smooth progression from the Senegal midfield of Pathe Ciss, Nampalys Mendy, Pape Gueye or Idrissa Gueye. The first two are basically playing as purely defensive players, uninvolved when Senegal have the ball. Idrissa has been more involved while Mendy has been his usual self: not increasing danger of a goal. The England midfield has been impossible to move through with Rice and Bellingham defending, this won’t be the game it gets sliced open.
Ismail Jakobs at left back is oddly there for set piece delivery, not a threat in open play.
Bookies Say…
England 78% to advance. That feels roughly right, Senegal played a solid group but England are one of the better sides left and don’t get de-stabilized easily. They probably have been a bit more unsettled than Southgate would like so far though, and Senegal’s right can feast on that, giving him plenty to worry about. Please start Rashford and Foden Gareth, do the right thing. Bring it home.