Let’s get straight into it, I will throw all the charts and data at you up top and then summarize below how it could play out.
Portugal-Switzerland
Tale of the Tape
Maps
Progression here refers to how many fields gained per ball loss a team gets…the color is how well the attacking team progresses and the defending team has defended this area compared to WC average. So Argentina should have a lot of smooth progression around the Australia box in this example.
Fields gained is a way of measuring how much of the field you are eating up: if you are 10 yards from goal and make a 5 yard pass, this is 0.5 fields gained. The same is true if you are 100 yards from goal and make a 50 yards pass.
I have tweaked this to boost sideways/backwards completions in dangerous areas, previously you got 0 credit for a sideways completion 11 yards from goal which makes no sense.
Shot generation is simply number of shot buildups per area (touch within 12 seconds of a shot) compared to WC average.
Player Maps
Total fields gained progressed via pass and carry is on the x axis, the y axis is receiving fields gained. Size of flag is fields gained/ball losses.
The Rundown
Very interesting matchup as Portugal came into the tournament with a sparkling, top-tier resume. What they have done so far has not been quite up to that, mainly due to weakness at the back. Portugal has top 6 territory and progression metrics, not far off France and Brazil who they want to play like, but their defense hasn’t allowed. Portugal allow .22 xG per deep completion, something like Serbia or…Spain allow. Portugal do not press high and all-in like Spain, so being compared to Serbia defensively is a bit worrying. Opponents getting off shots very often in possession (every 39 actions) is the big worrying sign.
The City defenders roles have been bizarre really, not being involved in many attacks at all and Dias is progressing less than almost all other players in this game while Cancelo, usually a great receiving outlet has not been given the freedom to be that here.
The two big players for Portugal are Bernardo Silva and Bruno Fernandes, these do it all midfielders make them dangerous at many moments as they are always threats to find space, turn and move the ball forward. Guerreiro and hypothetically, Cancelo make it a devastating quartet. Cancelo should be freed to join in this group. Portgual from the midfield line to the box should be quite clean vs the Swiss.
It’s the box that is the question, Switzerland have been very hard to break down and the Portugal pair of strikers are just barely above .3 xG + xA per 90. It’s a bit surprising to see in this day and age two out and out strikers like this playing, there are many arguments against…possibly doubling up Dalot with Cancelo or freeing up Guerreiro to be even further forward would be a better option than both Felix and Ronaldo.
Switzerland have generated a ton of xG off of their unimpressive fields gained and deep completion numbers. This can partially be explained by the Serbia “defense” they faced in Round 3.
Shaqiri has basically played the Bruno role for the Swiss except with tons of production, Embolo was at 1.6 xG vs Serbia alone and has been a good receiver but outside of those two the Swiss have been very…functional. Xhaka hasn’t been full Arsenal destroyer mode and there will be lots of questions over how the Swiss really can build in possession vs Portugal.
Will they set up simply to deny Portugal connections to the front two and then go for the counter? That will probably be where their best chances arise.
The Bookies Say
Portugal is 65% to advance. This feels basically right, a team that should dominate the possession and territory and has the much better players.