The One Question Weekend Preview
I've written about Bournemouth, Huddersfield, Fulham, Schalke, Eibar, and a bit of Atletico recently and want to at least keep up with some of them so will be watching their results closely this weekend.
Schalke v Werder Bremen
So what am I missing? One thing is that "shot generation" stat is a little sloppy: Werder Bremen average more passes in that 15 second window before the shot than any other team and allow fewer passes in that 15 second window. So while they look like they can generate shots quicker than opponents, actually opponents need fewer build-up passes right before a shot and Bremen need more. That's always been a stat I want to hone a bit.
Anyway, they've been much better than Schalke this season.
One Question
Where will the balance point of Werder's possession be?
Schalke are great at keeping opponents passing in their own half while Bremen spend a lot of time in the middle around the midway line and inside the opponents half. Schalke will likely go for the direct attack when they have the ball that they have tried unsuccessfully all year so keeping Bremen further back will ease the distance their direct attacks will cover. Let's look at some zone stats
Looking at going forward from zone 5 we see our matchup to watch:
Bremen have done this with their center backs mostly: Niklas Moisander finding left back Ludwig Augustinsson has been a nice move but he's been amazing moving the ball forward to anyone (.42 forward completions per pass). I suspect this has been because Bremen have been able to control the game and let Moisander have time and space to pick his pass. If things are going well for Schalke, expect inefficient right back Theodor Gebre Selassie (.25 forward completions per pass) to have a little more responsibility. Others involved in this space are Milos Veljkovic (.3 forward completions per pass) and midfielder Philipp Bargfrede (.33). If you watch this game, watch zone 5.
Cardiff vs Fulham
One Question: Can Fulham keep Cardiff from successfully roaring forward and getting good shots?
This is an enormous test for Fulham to see if they've fixed that leaky defense.
-Fulham allow you to go from back to front for a shot way too easily and that is literally the only thing Cardiff want to do.
-Cardiff are easy to mock with their ridiculous 38% possession and ridiculously difficult average pass attempt but they are averaging 7.2 in-box shots a game, 12th in the league. Arsenal average just 7.4, Cardiff aren't a team you can just sleepwalk past because when they have the ball they actually generate shots at one of quickest rates in the league (fewest passes per shot in the league coupled with highest good shot% in the league).
-I'd expect 15-20% of Cardiff's pass attempts in this game to end pretty close to Fulham's goal as they push this Fulham's defense weak point over and over and go for quick moves. Joe Bennett and Victor Camarasa will be two trigger men to watch, Bennett especially so if Fosu-Mensah starts again at fullback for Fulham. Watch Cardiff when they have the ball, Fulham have had two weeks to fix this devastating weakness, it will be tested.
-The bookies have Cardiff as a slight favorite but I think it's a bit more than that, I don't see any reason Fulham will slow them down and they are at risk of conceding several goals.
Now there should be something about the biggest games of the weekend, outside of Cardiff-Fulham and Schalke-Werder Bremen of course.
Chelsea-Man Utd
Who can win the action zone in the extended center when Chelsea has the ball?
Chelsea's attack and United's defense sort of funnel teams to the "extended center" area. Chelsea have the highest completion% of any team in the league in this area, United have to disrupt passing here or they could get rolled over.
Barcelona-Sevilla
Will bend but don't break work against Barcelona? Barcelona should see almost no resistance moving that ball upfield, Sevilla will try to make their stand and stop Barcelona moving forward from Zone 3. Look at their zone 6 vs zone 3 defensive numbers:
Sevilla will try the bend but don't break defense, and don't expect much sustained sideways possession when they are on the attack: they look to and have generated good shots quickly. For a good team especially they have a very high rate of aggressive forward passes in attacking areas. Bend but don't break and hit them directly on the counter, not the most original plan vs Barcelona, we will see how well Sevilla can put it into action.