The One Question Weekend Preview: Hertha Berlin v RB Leipzig
Going to try something new here, if you've been a loyal reader the last couple weeks you know I have introduced many different pass maps, like the following:
There are 50 Pass Types I used a k-means cluster algorithm to determine and every pass goes into one of those, the above just shows the type Barcelona plays either 1 standard deviation more often or less often than the average team. Now we will combine them for the preview to try and find the One Question. We start with RB Leipzig-Hertha Berlin before we get to the big one in the PL after this. Both teams come into the game on 16 points, tied for 5th, 5 behind Dortmund in first, 3 behind Bayern in 2nd and 1 point outside the CL places and Gladbach and Werder Bremen. It's a big game.
Where Leipzig allow passes and where Hertha play passes give you kind of a hint of what kind of game it would be if the two teams play to their tendencies. Blue means more. Hertha stuck in their own half and then hitting long, hopeful balls might be what you'd expect.
The attacking half not only looks to be rarely reached but it looks like a fire pit as far as trying to complete any passes.
The few that are completed have a chance of turning into shots, crosses in particular seem to be an area where Leipzig is gettable. Playing balls out to the left and then crossing from that area is an area to focus on for Hertha. Arne Maier is one of the highest-potential young German players, but he is not an aggressive passer, he loves to go sideways and backwards (without taking many touches) but in this game playing forward Plattenhardt should be first in his mind and not keeping soft, limpid possession where Leipzig want you to have it or trying to jump through the fire in the midfield. Plattenhardt should be looking forward to another player to play a cross or to play a cross himself as Leipzig destroy intricate wing horizontal passing.
And where Leipzig are likely to play the ball a lot if both their attack and Hertha's defense play to tendencies. Presumably the coaches know this and are taking it into account in their gameplans.
So, that was a lot of leadup and not the usual economy of words I like for the One Question Previews but I had to explain the new maps. My one question is Will Leipzig be able to create down their left?
Assuming these tendencies play out, Leipzig will likely shut down Hertha's attack. They did so last week vs Schalke and couldn't quite create a goal, so it's time to look a little closer at who will create for them against what
The players most commonly involved in this left-sided environment will be, in order whoever starts at left-back Marcel Halstenberg or Marcelo Sarrachi, Kevin Kampl, and Timo Werner. Kampl has come off the bench in 2 of RB Leipzig's last 3 BuLi matches, but I'd recommend that not become 3/4. Kampl has been the #1 supplier of Timo Werner this year.
So Kampl should be in, which left-back should play? Let's look at all the exclusive attacking info we have at our disposal:
The offensive argument for Halstenberg is simple, he progresses the ball much better than Saracchi and shots have come from his passes more often than Saracchi, with the ball at his feet, Leipzig have gotten better results.
The argument for Saracchi is he actually gets further up the pitch, in a game where you are counting on creating from the left, maybe you want the guy who has attempts 6.3 passes per 90 from the Danger Zone (final 30 yards in front of goal) compared to Halstenberg's 3.2.
I think Leipzig will totally shut down Hertha but not to the extent that the only consideration is left-back getting forward, I think Halstenberg's passing is what they should start with. Either way, they come into this game heavy favorites and I think an interesting look at 3.4 to get a clean sheet.