The One Question Weekend Preview: RB Leipzig vs Schalke
Leipzig-Schalke: Can anyone move the ball into the danger zone?
Get ready for a lot of defense and the ball to be far away from goal. Leipzig and Schalke have two of the most distinct defenses in the Big 4 leagues.
Both teams keep the opposition away from their goal and limit shots to a great extent. Schalke allow 11.4 shots a game with just 48.1% possession for, Leipzig are at 9.9 with 50.5% possession.
Schalke Offensively
Zone 6 is where Leipzig really shut you down, allowing both the second-lowest forward pass rate in the Big 4 Universe but also the second-lowest forward completion%. Now some teams, like Tottenham, allow a low forward completion% from these deep zones but the ones that are complete lead quickly to shots (Spurs actually worst team at this, even edging out Fulham) but Leipzig do not have this problem, the forward progressions are of below-average danger.
Schalke are really bad in this area, relying on Salif Sane as their main progresser into midfield, and he's responded with a below average completion rate. Really their only reliable option is Bentaleb, and if he drops this deep, they don't really have any chance of getting the ball to Kono or Harit, their only advanced progressing hopes. I don't see really much future for Schalke trying to build sustained attacks against this Leipzig offense, they did it in Turkey vs Galatasaray in the CL, mainly through Konoplyanka but this is a different beast.
Schalke can't play through Leipzig, I expect them to basically try to attack through long balls or Caligiuri bombing forward and hitting long, hopeful crosses. Embolo should definitely start, he's the best option for getting direct shots, it will be interesting to see if Konoplyanka starts on the left or a more active defensive player is added, because...
Leipzig Offense
Leipzig actually can attack. They are similar to Schalke defensively but elite shot-generators.
Of the 13 teams averaging 16+ shots per game in top 4 leagues, Leipzig are the only one with less than 53% possession, down with the mediocrities at 50.5%. Only Hoffenheim are closer to a shot whenever they have the ball.
Once they get the ball in position to make little continuation passes down the wings, like these:
they are lethal. They've completed 451 of these types passes this year and shots have come quickly after 77 of them. A normal team would have quick shots 41 times. Almost twice as common for Leipzig,
These down the right side are mainly from one of my favorite new stars in the Bundesliga, Nordi Mukiele. Kevin Kampl pops up everywhere, but leads the way on the left. Leipzig love to attack swiftly, and they are best at doing so through Mukiele down your left-hand side. That's the most dangerous spot in the game, and probably a good reason against picking Konoplyanka for Schalke and giving likely LB Hamza Mendyl a little more support.
So my answer is Leipzig are certainly more likely to get the ball into the danger zone when they have the ball and Schalke's attacks will likely fail so far back, they will have lots more chances and win the field position battle. This sort of could work for Schalke in a way in that it might open up the back for the handful of times their hopeful attack gets through, but it makes them decided underdogs and really having to work to stop Leipzig from getting the first goal, after which the balance of power would shift drastically against any sort of comeback.