What has happened with Man City?
A short, and inconclusive, investigation
A team in this rarified air of the sport does not simply fall apart like this. The usual way we see a team from this level fall apart is extreme bad luck or bad finishing (see Dortmund in the Klopp era), the fall is very minor (see Bayern last season where it was kind of arguable there wasn’t even really a fall) or the team actually wasn’t really at a really high level to begin with (various Chelsea, Spurs and Man Utd seasons). There is no doubt Man City were either the best or right next to the best team in Europe for several years, the players returning were basically the same that dominated the year before and they had a bit of new blood (Savio) and guys heading into their second year with Pep (Doku/Nunes/Savio) which gave no real indication we might see a big fall-off.
But we certainly have one now, and it’s one that is across the board in the underlying metrics. They all suggest that City are basically playing like a slightly above average team over the past 3+ months.
The Metrics
First let’s make clear what kind of fall-off we are looking at:
Last year City had 67% of their games xG, 77% of deep completions, 70% of shots and 74% of goals with 62% of transitional production for a performance score of 70, neck and neck with Arsenal in the Premier League.
This year they opened up looking roughly similar, thrashing Ipswich, West Ham, Arsenal (thanks to a red), Wolves and Saints in their first 9 games and putting up underlying numbers that basically mirrored last season. You might quibble by saying Arsenal had a red and they had played a terrible schedule but City often crank their performances up in the new year anyway so there was nothing real big to worry about.
In the 11 games since, the numbers have cratered everywhere.
It’s not just a lost of final third efficiency where the team gets the ball around the box and can’t get a shot: City have fallen from otherwordly deep control (1st or 2nd in deep completions in 8 of the first 9 games) to being just good at it (3 of the last 11 games).
The overall conversion of progression to deep completions has fallen from a very high level to a below average level. Last season they led the league in tilting the field up, now they spend a lot more time moving the ball in their own thirds and midfield. The progression efficiency is still really high it’s broadly more work, more time and more passes to get into shooting situations. Add in the typical Man City elaboration around the box along with what has become the typical Man City mediocre shot quality and that all leads up to a sort of Europa League looking attack.
Passing Maps
Probably though it is the defense that has slipped the most though as can be seen from the maps above and three notable metrics I’ll point out later. City were never some Spurs level shutdown, high pressure defense: last year they were 4th toughest at opponents progression efficiency, that slipped slightly to start the year but since the turning point has slipped below average. Same in terms of transition defense, which was good but not elite last year and has followed the same trend of minor slippage and then all out below average play.
The third category that has broadly seem the same trend (strong → good—> below average) is opponents shot generation off takeaways: City were good at both gegenpressing and then limiting counters/transitions as well last year by sagging back and forcing lots of passes to generate a shot. Right now they are not: a Bowen-less West Ham for example even in City’s 4-1 win that looked great according to the scoreline, were able to generate a huge amount through Paqueta, Wan-Bissaka, Coufal and more who have been far from potent all season. Leicester also had a lot of success the week before in a different way. There are no signs of the defensive slide being fixed, this generally just looks like a mediocre team working against the ball.
Field Position
Soccer is a complementary game, City’s inability to get as quickly upfield and pin opponents deep gives opponents easier chances to transition, opponents getting further upfield makes it harder for them to park around the box and on and on and on.
The first 9 games (and the previous 4-5 years) City were an incredibly dominant field position team…but now they just look like any other top 4 contender. For a team without much punch in transition or quick punch overall and struggling against the ball, to lose their bedrock advantage just makes every possession that much tougher.
Players
Obviously losing the best player in the world in Rodri is a big part of this. Until this season I have long been skeptical of the amount of sway one guy can have, Arsenal with Odegaard were shadows of their previous selves and now City without Rodri look like a fringy CL contender. Maybe I have underestimated the true power of both a totally elite player (which I am not sure Odegaard truly is) that is at the center of the teams tactics.
Instead big minutes in the progression engine room are played by
-Rico Lewis (just 4 games with a progression total in the top third at his position with similarly mediocre buildup numbers)
-Ilkay Gundogan (6 games at 40th percentile progression or lower since GW6 and just two above 70th percentile for a player who you would expect to be right at the top) with slumping buildup numbers
-Savio, who after a hot start has totally faded from being an impactful player in any aspect during the slump
-Matheus Nunes has had several total disappearance acts in starts (@ Brighton, Liverpool and Man Utd for three)
-Foden has seen some slippage as well, Haaland a bit also but I think the problems are a bit further back. Players like Savio, Gundogan, and Lewis are key players trying to fill the hole of a missing Rodri and mostly missing de Bruyne (and also missing one of the great prospects in the world in Oscar Bobb) and simply not up to the task.
I was not a fan of Matheus or Rico Lewis last season and Gundogan has been arguably worse than both of them this year, we have seen two of the world’s greatest players in Rodri and de Bruyne replaced by talent that fits much more on mid table/Conference League type teams. Their big two roles I think are being able to move the ball from the sort of middle of the pitch, 40-50 yards from goal into dangerous situations. Right now City seriously lack these kind of players…Doku can do it but is playing much too advanced of a position without any end product to be a big positive right now, Foden and Savio can kind of do it but you’d rather them be further up the pitch. Right now City just do not have the punch to really move the ball toward their front line and their offense can’t pile the pressure on.
Reasons to believe
-de Bruyne’s return: despite mediocre end product, I think the underlying numbers are still there to be a big help to this team if not the Top 5 player in the world he has been in the past
-Oscar Bobb’s return: his numbers last year were mouth-wateringly good and he seemed ready to explode heading into this year
-Pep’s genius: I think he is the best manager in the world and can figure things out.
-Lots and lots of money (Omar Marmoush and more)
-Bernardo Silva is still ticking along
What will happen
I do not see a clean and easy way out of this for now. I think even turning it around and steering the ship to a comfortable CL finish would be an impressive fix. I think that will happen eventually because I believe in Pep overall, but the numbers themselves do not suggest it’s really anywhere near to happening right now.