Who's In The Title Races?
Just look at that image, what a season that was. Didn't feel like hassling the graphics department to work up a new one, quite yet, maybe when I re-do this piece later I will.
Even though Eibar, Fulham and Bournemouth are doing interesting things, you can't write about them forever. Big games take on added meaning with deeper understanding and big games happen with big teams. Time to take a look at who is really in the title races in the big 34 leagues.
England
Bookies say:
Man City ~57%
Liverpool ~27%
Chelsea ~10%
Arsenal/Spurs ~2.5%
United ~1%
For our purposes we will be treating anything around 10% or so or higher to be In The Race, and anything from say 2-9% a Long Shot and anyone in that .1-2% zone Essentially Ruled Out.
Currently City, Chelsea and Liverpool have 20 points with Arsenal/Spurs at 18, and United down at 13.
Rule Them Out
Everyone but the big 6
Essentially Rule Them Out
Arsenal.
Basically nothing in their on-field product has even signified CL contender yet this season. Almost everything they've done: shot totals, xG, passing numbers, shot generation, field position, has looked like a ~9th-11th place team. They do have a hint of attacking flair, great passing in front of goal which makes sense with the players they are rolling out. But even then they aren't getting there enough to be serious.
Manchester United.
While they are relatively brutal to pass against, they aren't stifling defensively because opponents play with the ball in front of their goal a lot and quickly generate good shots from the passes they do complete. Are looking at a shot quality deficit and a pretty hefty one, only of big 6 to have that working against them.
Long Shots
Tottenham.
They are too easy to generate shots against as well, only Man Utd, Cardiff, Huddersfield, and Fulham are leakier in possession. Don't have the the truly elite passing ability to just overwhelm teams with that weakness.
In The Race
Chelsea, but barely.
They pass and defend like Man City in many ways, but their shot generation is seriously lacking for a title contender. Shot generation meaning how quickly they can get shots with the ball. They aren't making up for that with insane shot quality either. They won't score quite enough goals.
Liverpool, barely more.
They no longer press as high as they did and aren't using it to generate shots but still defend extremely well, but they have to do more of it as their passing isn't at a City/Chelsea level. I think the 28% odds overrate them slightly any slippage in their massively impressive shot quality edge could lead to Chelsea looking like a very similar team.
Man City.
No weaknesses. Essentially the best in every category, are underrated at this point I believe. I mean, look at these:
Italy
Bookies Say
Juventus ~76%
Napoli ~13%
Inter ~5%
Roma/AC Milan 2%
Lazio ~1%
Currenly Juve lead Napoli by 6, Inter by 8, Lazio by 9, Sampdoria/Roma by 10. AC Milan are 12 back.
No Shot
Everyone else
Essentially Ruled Out
AC Milan. 12 points back is too far, their passing has been great: 88% pass completion and over 18 shots a game. But their defense is much too bend-but-don't-break to mount a big comeback. They are limiting shots despite not really limiting passing in the midfield, their forward attacking threat is lethal though, there are some interesting bones here.
Roma. They are allowing 16.3 shots a game and are one of easiest teams in all of Europe to get a shot off against when you have the ball. Can't overcome that.
Napoli: Superficially impressive shot numbers melt away a bit when you look at the huge shot quality gap. Only Udinese take a lower share of "close" shots and none of the other contenders allow a higher share of "close" shots than Napoli. I know they shut down Liverpool but I think you can pass the ball around on them enough that their defense is actually gettable for good shots and their offense doesn't get deep enough reliably to generate high quality shots.
Long Shots
Inter and Lazio.
Very similar teams. 16 shots a game, ~12 shots against. Good, solid shot quality edges. Lazio are a bit smoother, as in evenly good up and down the pitch while Inter sometimes look great everywhere until right in front of goal. Both are solid but kind of like a poor man's version of really the only team In the Race:
Juventus
You simply can't get good shots against these guys. They've done it for years and they are doing it again, this time with Ronaldo. Who weirdly I forgot was on Juventus for a while. That's on me. There is not really any weakness here, shot volume which was a bit of a worry in the past at sub-15 is up at 21 in the Ronaldo era.
Spain
Bookies Say
Barcelona ~56%
Real Madrid ~24%
Atletico ~17%
Sevilla ~2%
Valencia ~1%
Right now it's all jammed up as Sevilla lead Barca and Atleti by a point with Real Madrid, Espanyol, and Alaves 2 points behind.
No Shot
Espanyol, Alaves and all the rest
Essentially Ruled Out
Valencia. They are generating shots extremely well when they have the ball but at 44% possession that just leads to middle of the pack shot numbers. Add in a soft defense over most of the field and that *essentially* rules out any true elite hopes. That sloppy vocab usage is letting me wriggle off the hook if they win it all.
Sevilla. They are taking the highest share of "good" shots in the league. They will have to keep winning shootouts though, their defense is leaky (4th most shots allowed in league, Valencia 3rd) and they won't hold ball long enough to cover it up (48% possession). Both these teams can really get shots up though.
Long Shot
Atletico Madrid. The only reason I moved them above Essentially Ruled Out is Simeone magic. Their numbers this year have been blandly average, reminiscent of Arsenal's start, where wins by a big-name team have papered over poor results. Atleti aren't shooting much at all (11.5 shots per game) and their defensive shutdown zone has shrunk over the years (covered here). There was talk of a Big 3 before the year, despite all the noise, Atleti are off to by far the most worrying start of all 3.
In the Race
Real Madrid and Barcelona. Surprise. More can be written about these guys later but I think I agree with the Barca favorite, but think the margin is smaller than bookies say now.
Germany
Bookies
Bayern ~77%
Dortmund ~21%
Leipzig ~2.3%
Currently Dortmund lead by 3 points over Leipzig, Gladbach, Werder, Hertha and 4 over Bayern.
No Shot
Hertha, Gladbach and the rest
Essentially Ruled Out
Werder Bremen. Strange to me they don't get a bit more respect from the bookies, there is a ton of good stuff here. Hope to write a post on them later, but solid shot quality edges and some nice midfield play make this a team to keep an eye on.
Long Shots
Dortmund: Don't have the underlying numbers but do have Favre. As Ted pointed out, they look like Arsenal (and I'll add Atletico) in that they are a big name team getting results but not performing like it. Now these type teams generally have higher ceilings and better ability to raise performances as well.
Leipzig: I think they should be closer to even with Dortmund. They take the most in-box shots in the Bundesliga, more than Bayern. Defensively they are fantastic also, only weakness maybe allowing a few too many "good shots". Try such difficult passes (good at completing them!) that they don't quite have ball enough to suppress shot volume like Bayern
In The Race
Bayern, who else. They've slipped a bit offensively but I still think around 80% is a fair rank.