World Cup Preview, Part 3

Groups G, H, and I

It’s time for some of the most fun and random soccer of the 4 year cycle! Where your mental stereotypes of Norway, Egypt, Japan and New Zealand get tested on the pitch and a whistle on a handball from a ref from El Salvador decides the fate of Spain’s title push! It’s the World Cup! Preview coming up, but first…

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World Cup Fantasy, For the Not-So-Big Bucks

If you are interested in playing a World Cup salary game I created, either comment or message me here or email me at dustinw100@gmail.com. You have $100 fake dollars to pick 6 teams who score points based on wins and draws in group stage plus points for winning each knockout round.

You will have to trust me with a real $10 entry fee via PayPal or something similar with the winner taking all, unless we get 10+ people (at ~6 right now), then second gets a cut. Will be fun and the salaries are created to be as fair as possible so no Odds Wizards/Research Junkies get a big edge. Just a fun way to play along if interested! I have already make my picks and will let you know my squad as soon as you send me yours so I don’t get an advantage.

Click Here To See The Sheet and Lineup Builder!

Example of highest salary teams, Jordan at $8 is the cheapest.

What this will be

-a classic Saturdays Secret Sauce* breakdown of how teams have played, adjusted for schedule (ELO score here).

-full of the creative writing, analysis and analogies that show up here ever so sporadically to separate this site from the 90th percentile Claude analysis you will be able to get pretty soon.

-my favorite picks I will be “investing” in, since last World Cup I came out pretty well using this strategy and betting on the groups. Do not take betting advice as investment advice, if you want to make money with your money go put it on the stock market or bonds. I like betting on the World Cup and soccer in general as it gives me extra focus on the matches, adds entertainment and is a puzzle to try and figure out. I think it makes the pieces I write better, but I am a losing sports better overall and do not recommend blindly tailing me. It’s just explaining my thought process and how I use this research.

*giving teams a performance score for each match based on xG^, shots, deep touches, possession, and a bit more in these cases (corners and shots on target) since I don’t have nearly as detailed data

^when available

What this will not be

-player focused, I do not have the analysis skills to even judge 20% of the players in the World Cup and you do not have the reading and memorization skills to keep Iran’s key players in mind…also like 20% of the time they get benched or are minor parts of the team at the World Cup anyway. Last World Cup I was very successful simply looking at how the national teams had played in the 12-18 months leading up to the World Cup and assuming that would be mirrored going forward

-I will not be diving too much into the context of the matchups leading up. If there’s an early red card or they played a putrid minnow (Niger, Somalia, San Marino, Hong Kong, etc) I toss it out. If it’s a friendly or a meaningless qualifier, I leave it in. Good cases for weighting, but just not enough of a sample or a guaranteed return so we are just rolling averages here.

-focused on the knockout matchups: when we get there, we get there. Betting on how teams will run after the Group Stage takes an even higher rake and a great ability to read matchups and opponent quality well beyond the group.

-too much ranting against the format. 32 of the 48 teams advancing to a straight knockout is simply absurd. There are essentially no stakes on the group stage for the top teams, why can’t we have 24 make it from a 4 or 5 game Swiss-format group stage with minor benefits in qualifying for the bottom teams to keep them incentivized and byes to keep the top teams pushing hard…too simple I guess? Now we will see tons of teams rest players in the final group match I think as it’s unclear you will get a much easier opponent from 1st vs 2nd and you have to play anyway.

Group G

Average ELO Rank Among WC Teams: 29.8, 3rd worst group

Highest ranked team: Belgium at 18

The Analogy: You are on the rental car page and you have a 2012 Dodge with fake German plates (Egypt), an electric Kia from 2016 (New Zealand), a car from an unknown company with with no details (Iran) and a 2025 Nissan Rogue (Belgium)

Belgium have zero excuse to not absolutely roll through this group. People are kind of tired of them and they have rolled up big numbers vs Kazakhstan and North Macedonia so easy to sort of throw away, but they did it vs Wales and the USA also and the totals are pretty overwhelming. They are a semifinal contender in a group with some very weak 2nd and 3rd best teams.

Well, let me say we think they are very weak. Iran’s games have either had no data (games vs Cape Verde, Nigeria, Gambia, and Tanzania are basically nonexistent on the internet…Iran won 2, drew 1, lost 1) or comically early red cards basically made the data useless (vs North Korea, Qatar, Uzbekistan). That leaves a whopping 3 matches to look at over the past 2 seasons, making Iran certainly the most mysterious team the World Cup. They were a bit better than Uzbekistan and a lot better than Qatar in their group. Qatar are probably the worst team we’ve seen so far, so Iran are better than they are. Leaves a lot of room where we don’t know the margins, could they be a near average team? For sure, but I am working off the idea they are roughly equal with Egypt for now.

Egypt seem highly overrated by the markets, maybe due to Marmoush/Salah hype? 17 combined box touches vs Ivory Coast and Senegal and a total destruction vs Spain (49 to 0 box touches) tell the story of a team with serious weaknesses. In their 5 AFCON matches with xG, they averaged just 1.03 with a 2.93 outing vs Zimbabwe pushing that well up. 5 shots each vs Nigeria and Angola…there just isn’t much here to dream on.

New Zealand have prepped by playing a pretty solid schedule (Ecuador, Colombia, Norway, Haiti, Poland) and being bad but not uncompetitive against this schedule. Averaging 11 shots and 45% possession against that schedule isn’t the sign of a team who will get overmatched vs Egypt, and probably not against Iran. This is an ugly battle for spots 2 and 3, but New Zealand do not seem as long shots as the bookies suggest.

The Picks: One of my largest bets on Egypt to finish 4th at 5.6 and a normal pick of New Zealand to finish 2nd at 7.

Group H

Average ELO Rank Among WC Teams: 25.5, most average group

Highest ranked team: Spain at 1

The Analogy: We are racing the 10k with Prefontaine (Spain) and 3 guys who kind of stay in shape. It might be tight, competitive and hard-fought but you might wonder just how high-level the battle really is.

Uruguay are priced as the clear second best team in the group, they have a well-earned reputation for being strong fighters and well-weathered competitors but do not bring a great record of performance in. Oddly a very high possession team (even 50% vs USA/Mexico/England away) but can struggle to get the ball into dangerous areas (under 10 box touches per in those 3 matches). I think a lot of the price is reflecting reputation and assuming a large uptick in play once the games start, I don’t assume that.

Spain are the best team we’ve looked at so far, even beyond Germany. Totally dominant in a way you usually see from Bayern, PSG, etc, they are tough to beat. Bad teams get absolutely pummeled routinely (33-3 shots vs Bulgaria, 25-4 vs Egypt, 14-2 vs Serbia, 24-1 vs Georgia) and for the neutral they promise some great, high-level, open knockout matches. Their 6 matches vs above average WC teams (Turkey x2, France, Netherlands x2, Portugal) has seen an average shot balance of 18-14…those games will come like a cold Gatorade on a sweltering Dallas July Day when we get to them after dozens of Ecuador-England’s and Uruguay-France type knockout matches where the worse team just sticks 9-10 guys around their box and hopes for a 1-0, 0-0 or 1-1.

Cape Verde have very low stat coverage and a very soft schedule. Their +8 GD in a CAF Qualifying group that included Mauritius, Eswatini, Angola and Libya isn’t overwhelming but they have respectable performances vs Serbia, Finland, Chile, and Egypt on their resume as well. They’ve done enough to be put above the awful minnow tier and more like a normal West Ham-esque Bad Team.

Why do the Saudis and the Qataris love ineffective possession? Is it something about low population, desert societies with enormous amounts of money who want Western influence that lead them to sort of poorly mimic the most popular style among European giants? Three teams in this group with solid possession totals and shot averages under 10 could mean some really slow matches as the bottom 3 slug it out. I just don’t quite see the massive edge Uruguay is given over the other two and think it’s much smaller and low action, meaning games could tip either way easier.

The Picks: Uruguay to finish last at 15…seems like one of the best values I’ve seen so far. I also sprinkled a bit on each Cape Verde at 9 and Saudi Arabia at 6 to finish second.

Group I

Average ELO Rank Among WC Teams: 18.5, best group

Highest ranked team: France at 3

The Analogy: It’s a bit like the well-worn meme with the soldiers and the clown, and yes sadly Iraq is the clown here.

It would be an amazing group if finishing first meant a ton and finishing third was elimination, but as it is it’s quite likely the big 3 will get wins over Iraq and probably be safe. And there’s no big incentive to push for first, so we might get B teams playing at less than full tilt against each other. At least we should have an electric France-Senegal to kick things off.

Norway have been excellent, but against a pretty weak schedule. Unlike Sweden, who have big names up top, Norway are able to generate lots of box pressure by putting the ball in the box a lot, or they have vs Sweden, New Zealand, Israel and Finland. They did it to a solid extent against the Netherlands, Switzerland and Italy as well. Odegaard, Sorloth and Haaland and a nice resume of success leading in make this one of the most exciting teams to watch. It’s rare to see anyone above 30 box touches on average, only Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, and Spain so far. Norway doing it as a team who has done nothing in my life in international soccer is great, everyone loves an outside who attacks. Plus the all-time greatest squad photo, it will be hard not to root for them.

Senegal have played a very tough schedule, especially for an African side. They’ve taken on the USA, Brazil and England and played overall pretty well against those teams and they have avoided a single ‘bad’ performance like we have seen with teams like Egypt. They are a legit side who are competent in every aspect of the game, if tilted a bit toward the slow and conservative side of things.

France are France, one of the best teams in the field and have played like it. The old criticism that they just shut up shop and play too conservatively doesn’t seem to be valid anymore: a 4-5 vs Spain with 17 total shots on target, 15 shots on target between France and Germany and 5 each when they played Colombia. They’ve dipped below 33 box touches just once (Colombia) and 14 is their low in shots taken. Have had 8 games on the xG machine and average 2.35 non-pen xG. They are an attacking machine now.

Iraq are pretty bad and in a group that gets punished. Switch them into the group with Saudi Arabia and Uruguay and they might have a chance but Senegal and Norway shouldn’t have too many problems brushing off a team that has gotten over 10 shots twice in the sample: vs Thailand and Hong Kong in something called the King’s Cup. They got outshot 32-20 in 2 matches vs the UAE, had 5 box touches vs the Saudis, and averaged 7 shots and 12 box touches vs Jordan and Indonesia. Maybe you can make a case they have a competent defense, they held Spain to mediocre numbers but Spain were sleepwalking. But Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bolivia had a good bit of success. Iraq will likely bunker and hope to get lucky with a 0-0 in a 1.7-.4 xG type of game.

The Pick: This group seems to be priced pretty well against my numbers, I will take a bit of Senegal to win the group at 8.