A bits and pieces article

Statistics of intrigue and metrics of revelation that do not yet yield a full article

I love the term bits and pieces for a player in cricket, a guy who can hypothetically bat a bit and bowl a bit but usually wind up coming in 7th and scoring 11 and 25 while bowling 8 overs at 6 while taking one wicket. You usually wind up a bit nonplussed looking back at their output. What a great setup to have you salivating for what is to come here…

5 Bits and 4 Pieces

Is what I will restrict myself to today. It’s a way of scanning through the metrics I have that aren’t easily accessible to my loyal readers elsewhere and that I think are revelatory. But that I don’t want to pour the hours in just yet to fully flesh out each for an article. The bits will be about teams, pieces about players.

Bit #1: The Relentless and Single-Minded Bournemouth Attack

Bournemouth have cranked up the offensive tempo even higher. The fewest passes needed for a shot, the third most vertical passing, the third highest shot per deep completion and the fourth highest deep completion per field gained all show just how intense the Bournemouth focus is on putting the ball on net, no matter if they lose it in possession or not. They have the second most shots…and the 17th highest progression efficiency.

Bit #2: Aston Villa’s Low Tempo Defending

The team who allows the highest share of opponents passes to come in long possessions is…Aston Villa. They have allowed the 3rd least xG against by just keeping opponents passing around the uncontested areas of the pitch (lowest field tilt against of any defense in the league and the highest buildup play completion% allowed).

Bit #3: Forest’s Unique Defensive Style

The team who has allowed the highest progression efficiency against in the league is…currently third in the table Nottingham Forest. They have somehow emerged with a pretty good xG against total by having the lowest shot per deep touch ratio in the league and the second lowest xG/shot allowed in the league. Forest have allowed .037 xG per deep touch, over two standard deviations below the league average of .051. Bournemouth and Arsenal are the closest to Forest there.

The last time Forest had over 50% of the progression or 50% of the deep touches in a game was 11 games ago against West Ham. Their transitional play is greatly overrated offensively, on set plays they are fantastic and they are incredibly good at keeping opponents from turning pressure into good shots. But can that continue even at 80% of the current extreme…?

Bit #4: Man City’s Lack of Crucial Resistance

I did write about City a bit this week, but missed this big time stat: only 3 teams have allowed opponents to complete 50% of their actions ending within 25 yards of their goal this year

-Leicester (sure)

-Southampton (naturally)

-and….Manchester City (wait, what?)

At the other end of this table you find Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Fulham. City’s back-end fragility, openness to the counter and general lack of high-tempo defense to win the ball back and stop opponents efficient progression is a bad list of ingredients.

Bit #5: Chelsea’s Intense Press

Have Chelsea displaced Ange and Klopp as the heaviest of heavy metal teams in the league? They have the highest tempo defense in the league according to my numbers: the lowest buildup completion% allowed, the lowest completion% allowed post takeaway (rough gegenpress measure) and force opponents into the most vertical pass style in the league.

Piece #1: Cutting Edge Receiving Weapons…and those of the dull variety

Receiving ability and the ability to get forward and progress play by getting open and holding the ball is one of the more underrated skills for a player (in certain positions). It can supercharge a teams attack but also if a player totally lacks this skill or output it can indicate something going badly wrong in the attack or possibly a limitation of the player.

Looking here at players who stand out in getting their teams up the pitch through vertical receiving (with receiving in dangerous areas factored in as well).

WINGER: Mo Salah, Simon Adingra, Noni Madueke, Harry Wilson, Alejandro Garnacho, Mohammed Kudus

ATTACKERS: Eberechi Eze, Diogo Jota, Phil Foden, Kevin de Bruyne, Alexander Isak, Morgan Gibbs-White, Gabriel Jesus

MID: Jacob Ramsey, Bruno Fernandes, James Maddison, Dominik Szoboszlai, Enzo Fernandez, Mikkel Damsgaard, Tom Cairney

FB: Malo Gusto, Milos Kerkez, Daniel Munoz

those players who really lag their compatriots

ATTACKERS: Jamie Vardy, Evanilson, Rasmus Hojlund

WINGERS: Ilman Ndiaye, Pedro Neto, Tyler Dibling

MIDFIELDERS: Carlos Baleba, Romeo Lavia, Oliver Skipp, Andre

FULLBACKS: Ashley Young, Adam Smith

Piece #2: United’s Young Attackers “Do It Alone” Ethos

Among wingers/second level attackers/attacking midfielders, the top two players in terms of carry% are Amad Diallo and Alejandro Garnacho. Garnacho gains 62% of his yardage through carries and Amad is at 52%, Simon Adingra at 47% and Tyler Dibling at 46% are #3 and #4. This does not stand out to me as a good or a bad stat necessarily, those are more determined elsewhere, but an interesting one. Amad has been a positive as a progressive force and Garnacho has been able to be dangerous in terms of goal threat, both look very promising players overall and it’s possible they will thrive even more in a more coherent attacking system where they have passing options in front.

A note here: Jeremy Doku is among players who are in more advanced areas with a similar carry rate.

Piece #3: Triple Threat Attackers

Who can find good spaces around the box for teams to move into, create threat for others and be a big goal threat in open play?

Mo Salah is the ultimate example, but he has 6 neighbors so far this season.

Diogo Jota, Ollie Watkins, Christopher Nkunku, Alexander Isak, Cole Palmer and Bukayo Saka have graded very well at all three of those categories. No City players surprises (Foden was the closest and many of the wingers just do not have the end product).

Piece #4: Do-It-All Second Wave Players

Second wave here meaning their main job is not goal output, so mostly fullbacks and midfielders. These are players that have lots of different responsibilities, so here we are looking at individual defensive output*, receiving production, progression and contribution to buildup. Which players wind up in the top half in every category?

* a custom recipe of duel wins, recoveries, tackles, etc, it does not factor in ball progression and buildup against in zone that I usually look at week to week

FULLBACKS: Josko Gvardiol, Malo Gusto, Destiny Udogue, Andrew Robertson, Pervis Estupinan, Antonee Robinson, Mads Roerslev

MIDFIELDERS: Jacob Ramsey, Tom Cairney, Declan Rice, Mikkel Damsgaard, Ryan Gravenberch, Moises Caicedo, Pape Sarr, Elliot Anderson, Thomas Partey

Does this fit the picture of well-rounded players without real big weaknesses? It kind of does for me really.

Piece #4: Transitional Weapons

Nicolas Jackson has nearly 60% of his open play xG in transitional situations. Others nearing that number

-Anthony Gordon (56%)

-Mohammed Kudus (54%)

-Yoane Wissa (57%)

-Alejandro Garnacho (61%)

-Ollie Watkins (59%)

Players who have the opposite

-Kai Havertz (14%)

-Kaoru Mitoma (17%)

-Danny Welbeck (25%)

-Diogo Jota (21%)

-Phil Foden (23%)

-Tomas Soucek (18%)

Players with a high share of their creative output coming in transition

-Morgan Rogers (66%)

-Yoane Wissa (67%)

-Alejandro Garnacho (66%)

-Son Heung-Min (61%)

Players with the opposite

-Reiss Nelson (29%)

-Marc Cucurella (29%)

-Ryan Christie (29%)

-Bukayo Saka (24%)

-Ilkay Gundogan (23%)

-Kobbie Mainoo (19%)

-Elliot Anderson (25%)