A Champions League Mega-Article
big picture thoughts, knockout previews, team analysis, player lists and a bit more
To open a few thoughts on the overall format change. A massive positive, one of the best moves we have seen from any sport in recent years. It’s not in the neighborhood of the baseball pitch clock but a huge step forward from a previously dull slog through a Group Stage where everyone played just 3 opponents and usually 75% of the groups were sown up heading into the final match day or even before. Now we have multiple tiers of incentives which kept everyone outside of Liverpool pushing with the pedal down and the mass in the middle and lower classes fighting the entire time. There were true stakes, a much fairer mix of schedules, and more fun games to watch. Plus no silly drop down to Europa League place.
Stuttgart got to play Juventus, PSG and Real Madrid while actually winding up with a fair or even easy schedule overall. Brest got to go to Barcelona, host Real Madrid…Brugge hosted Dortmund, Villa and Juventus, were away at Milan, Celtic and City and advanced! It gives a much wider glimpse of the entire European system to each team and fan bases and pushes this entire competition a bit more towards the “League” part of the schedule being Europe-wide. I think the “old style Champions League” schedule can maybe eventually be transferred the domestic side of the schedule, which I think is necessary for most non-Premier League leagues in Europe as they get more and more unbalanced and the need for a bit more randomness for the winner and fewer weekly mismatches will benefit all. Is it really so crucial that Celtic spend 80% of their games pummeling Dundee and Ross County? They could do it in 35% of their matches while playing Villa, Brugge, Salzburg, etc a bit more? Anyway, we are straying a bit but overall this change was a huge hit. I suspect the only true opponents are kind of nationalist fans attached to The Old Ways that have actually been gone for 30+ years.
Let’s start with the overall look at how the 36 teams performed, using my offense and defense performance indicators: a weighted mix of rough xG (limited so a .55 shot is rare and the max), shots, deep touches, progression and transitional control.
Let’s dive down into the nitty gritty a bit.
Those Who Have Played Like Deserving Title Contenders: 6 teams
Bayern Munich (12th place finish, t-7th in GD, knockout round vs Celtic)
Poor Celtic. They drew probably the best team in the world, who played like the best team in the world in the League in the league phase. The only real bobble performance wise was at Barcelona in one of the most thrilling games to watch of the year, where Barcelona used extremely high quality play to rip apart a wildly aggressive Bayern press. They lost at Villa and Feyenoord in games where the very few forays forward turned into goals. Opponents do have time and space to turn their touches into shots but are under insane pressure the entire time otherwise.
Devastating in transition, pouring forward in waves and putting up 23 shots a game are immense numbers. This is a super powered attacking side with truly elite players like Musiala and Olise powering an attack that is tough to slow.
Liverpool (1st place, 4th in GD, bye to R16)
A more controlled dominance than Bayern means when things go wrong they do not go nearly as wrong but Liverpool will not dominate games to the same level. They never reached 65% of the game’s progression while Bayern had 5 games of 75% or more. The overall numbers are seriously dampened by their final game when they put out a very poor performance with a C team full of kids at PSV.
Shots and xG are averages, others are ranks among 36 CL teams.
Liverpool are not going to lose the game on a fluke big chance, 33rd ranked xg/shot against shows that.
Atalanta (9th in table, 2nd in GD, knockout round vs Club Brugge)
Draws in solid performances vs Arsenal and Barcelona, a 20 shot, 2.5 xG game vs Real Madrid, and comfortably outplaying a strong Stuttgart side in Bad Canstatt surrounded some pummelings of also-rans (6 goals vs Young Boys, 2.4-.3 xG vs Celtic, led league in transition vs Shakhtar).
A massively wing-focused team with the ball who is lethal in transition and gets up the field incredibly quickly (highest field tilt in CL, final column). Against the ball they are outstanding across the board. Arsenal, Real Madrid and Barcelona averaged just under 11 shots per game against them.
PSG (15th in table, 13th in GD, knockout round vs Brest)
This is not your slightly older brothers PSG. There was not really much settled attacking production here, a lot more came in lightning transitions and a big ability to play off of forced turnovers. I am not sure if this is actually how they want to play (they pass the ball sideways a ton) but it worked out reasonably well overall. Where it didn’t click at all was against Arsenal and Bayern which could raise questions about how well the attack will click against high level defenses. While they overwhelmed Man City and Stuttgart post Christmas, neither team was truly playing at a high level against the ball at that point. A nod in their favor was their dominant performance against Atleti (22 shots to 4 in a match they totally controlled only to lose in the 95th minute).
The ability to strike quickly, ability to control possession and be robust against counters/transitions themselves will make them very hard to upset over two legs.
Barcelona (2nd in table, 1st in GD, bye to R16)
An early red card in their opener vs Monaco limited their numbers overall as they got dominated there but impressive wins over Bayern and an impressive draw vs Atalanta showed the high end level this team can reach. They absolutely crushed the bad teams as well (Young Boys, Red Star and Brest), racking up nearly 80% of the progression and 85% of the xG in these three matches.
Arsenal (3rd in table, 3rd in GD, bye to R16)
Grinding it out in sometimes painful to watch style, Arsenal did not have an impressive attack at all for most of the league phase. However, they did put up numbers on Inter and Monaco, two teams who had looked defensively imposing through many of their matches (2.3 xG off 16 shots vs Monaco and 20 shots for 1.8 xG at Inter).
Defensively we all know Arsenal are one of the best at limiting transition chances and really quality shots overall without pressing much. They leave you to buildup without hassling like a Bayern, PSG, or Barca but don’t give up chances. This boring style is effective, but combining the low scoring nature of their matches with their overly fearful manager (see last years knockout stage setups), you can imagine Arsenal being much more open to being picked off by a worse team over two legs than your Bayerns or your Barcelona’s who will be much more likely to generate 4 or 5 goals.
Fringy Contenders-2 teams
Leverkusen (6th in table, t-7th in GD, bye to R16)
While they don’t have the duel-winning bullies of Arsenal and the needle is titled a bit more towards attack, Leverkusen’s play style is a bit reminiscent of Arsenal. They allow opponents space to build in their own half and don’t press rabidly overall, but are robust against transitions and turnover attacks. A versatile attack does have some shot quality worries: against Atleti, Liverpool and Inter they took a respectable 42 shots for a total of 2.76 xG (a putrid .065 xG/shot). There does seem to a bit of belief and that special feeling missing this season from Leverkusen, but the bones are still very solid and they are not a team to toss aside too lightly.
Inter Milan (4th in table, t-4th in GD, bye to R16)
Giving up just one goal against a brutal schedule which included Arsenal, Leverkusen and City (3 of the 8 best performing teams in the competition) is mighty impressive. Their offensive output vs those three teams was not (1.4 xG outside of penalties over the 3 matches). They are a shot quality team, trying to pick out a few nice transition or empty box chances while clogging their own box to limit yours. Even in their strong performances they are never looking to tilt the field a ton.
Fascinating matchup of big names full of talent who are woeful against the ball currently-2 teams
Man City (22nd in table, t-14th in GD, knockout vs Real Madrid)
Their most impressive performances came early, three dominant performances out of the gate against Inter and two scrub teams that had them looking like one of the very best teams in the CL. The remaining five matches they had less than 50% of the xG and their stumbling form in the Premier League matches this downward trend. They are giving up extremely high quality shots and are brittle after they lose the ball. They will be playing another big name team with pretty extreme defensive deficiencies as well in….
Real Madrid (11th in table, t-7th in GD, knockout vs Man City)
I am sure they will make me regret putting them this low, but surely they can’t keep getting away with essentially not defending against the ball at all, right? 3rd best progression efficiency against, the single highest first pass completion% after a live ball turnover which is combined with a high shot generation rate in those situations…this is just not a serious team against the ball. Maybe they will start working harder in the knockouts, but Atalanta, Liverpool, Brest, Stuttgart, Dortmund and AC Milan all had large chunks of success with the ball. Now you get City.
The Transition Three-3 teams
Atletico Madrid (5th in table, t-7th in GD, bye to R16)
Borussia Dortmund (10th in table, t-4th in GD, v Sporting Lisbon in knockout)
Aston Villa (8th in table, t-11th in GD, bye to R16)
These three teams wouldn’t scare really any of the top teams but you can’t totally overlook them either.
Villa have been more consistent than the other two but lacked the highest end performances. Atleti have a massively concerning no-show away at Benfica (3-0.2 xG loss in a 4-0 match) and averaged just 12.4 shots per match but still have a solid defense that makes opponents work hard all the way up the pitch.
Villa were really able to limit opponents transition in the CL, but had quite an easy schedule overall with disappointing Juventus maybe being the second-toughest game. This easy schedule boosting the numbers, their fading form in the PL and recent fragility post-turnover make them a much easier opponent than the raw performance number shows.
Nuri Sahin was in over his head but Dortmund were sort of forced into accidentally becoming a lethal counter team in the CL as they couldn’t really play Sahin-ball (moving the ball into a non-dangerous area slowly and at some risk while leaving yourself wide open at the back if you turn it over). They played one of the worst matches from any team in still around at Bologna (2 open play shots) but were really good against Barcelona, Celtic and Real Madrid at creating through quick strikes. New coach now but the talent to be dangerous is there.
Beauty of the new format is clear here as it’s incredibly valuable for Atleti and Villa to get the bye while Dortmund is not good enough to breeze through a Lisbon and City and Real get to face the consequences of middling campaigns and have to face each other.
Can Make Some Noise-5 teams
Benfica (16th, vs Monaco in knockouts), AC Milan (13th, vs Feyenoord in knockouts), PSV (14th, vs Juventus in knockouts), Sporting (23rd, vs Dortmund in knockouts), Monaco (17th, vs Benfica in knockouts)
Benfica had the 26th most progression and allowed the 5th most to opponents, concerning numbers. They did destroy Atleti, but they also had 26% possession and 1 shot at Bayern. They will play one of the most evenly balanced knockout ties against Monaco. Monaco looked like one of the sleeper contenders through the first half of the CL, before a couple of red cards in the second half wrecked their numbers. A rabid high press forced opponents into vertical passing, Benfica played vertically and had the 3rd best xg/shot in the group stage, Monaco allowed the highest xg/shot against. Edge: Benfica.
AC Milan rode a cake second half schedule (Girona, Bratislava, Belgrade, and Zagreb) to an overall even par score. About as average of a CL team as you can imagine, they got a great draw in Feyenoord.
PSV love to play with the ball, 5th in the league in overall progression. They had nearly 60% of the progression at Juventus, 65% vs Sporting, and were almost even at PSG. But they are a typically soft Dutch team against the ball: teams can move it upfield quickly, get shots quickly and typically get good shots. Juventus in their first matchup got 6 big chances and 3 xG off of 15 shots.
Sporting looked really good with Amorim, putting competitive displays up against City and Arsenal with an attack that struck off of turnovers well but their final three matches against marginal opposition (Leipzig, Brugge and Bologna) saw marginal performances. I do not expect much from them overall.
Can Maybe Echo a Bit
Juventus, Celtic, Club Brugge, Brest, Lille
Juventus showed very little after that first match vs PSV, they were 36/36 in terms of field tilt with the ball and opponents were 3rd/36. Bottom 10 team in deep completions total as teams like Stuttgart, Lille and Aston Villa totally stifled them. While they will take heart from the quality of chances they got vs the soft PSV underbelly last time, there is a chance they just get played off the park overall.
Celtic finally didn’t just get destroyed and pinned to the bottom of the table in the CL. they showed some mental fortitude coming back from the fluky 7 goals conceded in Dortmund. Blowing past RB Leipzig at home was certainly the highlight but they will almost certainly be cannon fodder for Bayern and a 20 shot gap is certainly well in the range of possibilities.
Brugge did not have a single true stinker the entire CL. For a Belgian side that played AC Milan, Man City, Dortmund, Juventus and Aston Villa that is a huge win and they deserve major props. Looking at their schedule and consistency I actually think I might have them a bit low here. Unfortunately they get high-flying Atalanta in the knockouts. They allowed the 2nd most progression in the league at the highest efficiency, but were incredibly at three key areas defensively: keeping opponents in sterile areas, limiting shots when in dangerous areas and limiting shot quality. Sort of a continental Nottingham Forest. Manager Nicky Hayen has a bit of a bizarre club history but might be popping up on the lists of low wage teams who aren’t looking to play possession or high press in Germany and England with this performance.
Lille finishing top 8 with a brutal schedule (Liverpool, Atletico, Juventus, Real Madrid) is a great story, but they didn’t even average 10 shots a match and play a horizontal, slow attacking style without anything standing out against the ball. I do not see them being much of an obstacle.
Brest are quite combative and impressive against the ball, pressing high, disrupting progression at all points and limiting shots per deep touch. They outshot Real Madrid 23-14 and held Leverkusen to just 8 shots but overall they were just putrid at progressing the ball the entire league phase and tend to give up a handful of transitional great chances a match.
Happy to Advance
Feyenoord
They showed zero pop in transition or post turnover and ended the league phase with less progression than everyone but Sparta Prague, Slovan Bratislava and Sturm Graz. Nothing real impressive against the ball in the post-Slot era and it wasn’t as if the schedule was impossible (City, Bayern and Leverkusen yes but also Girona, Salzburg, Prague). They conceded 21 goals.
Bad Luck Stuttgart
Stuttgart are up there with Leverkusen and a bit ahead of Aston Villa and Atleti in terms of underlying performance in the league phase. Sure they were losing a lot and played several bums they ran up huge numbers on, but they are certainly the most hard-done by team in the competition. They played well and should keep their head high.
Bad showings from Red Bull
Jurgen Klopp, save us. RB Leipzig and Salzburg were lifeless and truly awful. Leipzig were inefficient with the ball and incredibly soft without it (opponents were in the top 4 in buildup completion%, first pass regain completion% and regain shot generation) as the entire idea behind the RB Leipzig project seems to have lost it’s way. It’s unclear exactly what the idea is besides Xavi Simons being an amazing player. Salzburg had one of the three worst defenses in the competition, they were repeatedly torn apart for huge chances in transition and gave up 10 xG and 13 goals over a 3 game stretch vs Leverkusen, PSG and Real Madrid. The Red Bull project is sputtering on the pitch even as they have introduced the delightfully delicious Red Bull Zero drink in stores near you.
Knockout Preview Graphics
Combining the teams attack and defense stats from the league phase for an average. This is just to give you a broad idea of what to expect, of course schedules, game states, red cards will influence these.
Brugge will have a hard time getting much going forward against an Atalanta team that will be a deserved heavy favorite.
Two teams that look very even overall but the nod goes to Dortmund for me here, the transitional threat is greater and Sporting’s form tanked post-Amorim departure.
Two teams not defending at all at this moment, who can pile up the goal fastest might be the question.
If Bayern take fewer than 70% of the shots over two legs I would be surprised. Hard to see a non mega fluke way for Celtic to win.
AC Milan are likely to have a pretty clean path of progression against an underwhelming Feyenoord side lacking transitional and regain punch.
Another pretty even match where Juventus will look to create big chances from their few deep touches vs PSV trying to dominate the field and pin Juventus in deep. Could be an interesting setup where both kind of want a similar setup, just who can execute better.
An all-Ligue 1 matchup that is wildly unbalanced. In domestic play, PSG has outscored Brest 8-2 with a 6.4-1.9 xG edge. Expect domination here in almost every aspect.
The vertical passing, high field tilt style of Benfica meets a high pressing Monaco side which means we will probably see a low completion% but maybe a few big chances for the Portuguese side in what promises to be a finely balanced match between two even sides.
Top Players in the League Phase
Threat Creation (passes and carries leading to dangerous shots or very deep touches)
Florian Wirtz (top receivers Alejandro Grimaldo and Jeremie Frimpong)
Raphinha (Lewandowski and Yamal)
Jamal Musiala (Kane and Gnabry)
Achraf Hakimi (Desire Doue and Ousmane Dembele)
Joshua Kimmich (Leroy sane and Jamal Musiala)
Top Threat Receivers
Florian Wirtz (top feeders: Grimaldo and Frimpong)
Kylian Mbappe (Rodyrgo and Modric)
Raphinha (Yamal and Lewandowski)
Jamal Musiala (Davies and Kim Min-Jae)
Erling Haaland (Savio and Matheus Nunes)
Efficient Progression
Forwards: Ademola Lookman (Atalanta), Samuel Chukwueze (AC Milan), Osame Sahroui (Lille), Rodrygo (Real Madrid), Michael Olise (Bayern)
Second Level Players: Martin Odegaard (Arsenal), Ryan Gravenberch (Liverpool), Mateo Kovacic (Man City), Aleksandar Pavlovic (Bayern), Exequiel Palacios (Leverkusen), Alexis Mac Allister (Liverpool), Mario Pasalic (Atalanta), Henrikh Mkhitaryan (Inter)
Third Level Players: Joshua Kimmich (Bayern), Ederson Silva (Atalanta), Josko Gvardiol (Man City), Atakan Karazor (Stuttgart), Callum McGregor (Celtic)
xG open play shots
Erling Haaland
Kylian Mbappe
Robert Lewandowski
Harry Kane
Mateo Retegui (Atalanta)
Ousmane Dembele (PSG)
Antoine Griezmann
Florian Wirtz
Evangelos Pavlidis (Benfica)
Sehrou Guirassy (Dortmund(
xG set play shots
Thilo Kehrer (Monaco)
Joao Neves (PSG)
Evangelos Pavlidis (Benfica)
Kai Havertz (Arsenal)
Ball Carriers
Manuel Akanji
Joshua Kimmich
Achraf Hakimi
Oscar Gloukh (Salzburg)
Johan Bakayoko (PSV)
Josko Gvardiol
Ilkay Gundogan
Matheus Nunes
Youssouf Fofana (AC Milan)
Angelo Stiller (Stuttgart)
Transitional Threat Creation
Florian Wirtz
Raphinha
Bradley Barcola (PSG)
Victor Gyokeres (Sporting)
Jeremie Frimpong (Leverkusen)
Jamal Musiala
Mohamed Salah
Transitional Threat Receiver
Florian Wirtz
Morgan Rogers
Kylian Mbappe
Raphinha
Erling Haaland
Jonathan David (Lille)
Team Hubs/Standouts…inordinate % of production from one player
Creator: Florian Wirtz (Leverkusen), Raphinha (Barcelona), Maghnes Akliouche (Monaco), Osame Sahraoui (Lille), Christos Tzolis (Brugge)
Finisher: Erling Haaland (Man City), Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid)
Creator and Finisher: Victor Gyokeres (Sporting)
Progression: Angelo Stiller (Stuttgart), Nico Schlotterbeck (Dortmund), Olivier Boscagli (PSV)